California Dreamin'

Been a while since the Capper has found time to rant, rave and vent, but yesterday's Morvich Handicap (GIII) on the downhill turf course at Oak Tree @ Santa Anita gave me reasons aplenty to unload this morning.

As a "Win and You're In" qualifier, the Morvich also served as a midweek play in the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge, where the Frugal Capper is now in 22nd place after a bad case of thirditis two weeks ago and yesterday's misstep.

A quick scan of the past performances showed Get Funky to be a somewhat vulnerable favorite and nowhere near the value we're looking for in tournament play. From there, I gave strong consideration to Rebellion, easily the class of the field but ultimately shortening up too much for his late run to take a short price. After also giving strong consideration to Ten Maropa and One Union, I had finally narrowed it down to Desert Code, 8/1 on the morning line, and California Flag, a 30/1 bomb that I couldn't get off of.

That was based on 2 things - his July 2nd race, an allowance race he wired comfortably at 6 furlongs over the Hollywood turf course, was faster at every call than the July 6th race over the same course that both One Union and Get Funky exited, with Get Funky prevailing by a head. With Tropic Storm scratching out, I was pretty sure the Flag would make a fairly easy lead, with Desert Code his only real pace pressure.

The second key was the jock/trainer angle: in 9 starts at Santa Anita over the past year, the Brian Koriner/Joseph Talamo pairing has hit at 33% (3 of 9), for a huge $5.58 ROI...meaning they've gotten a couple bombs to the wire on top.

So it seems like a great play, right? Like the kind of play that you need to make to win a tournament, right? You're right, it was. Unfortunately, I didn't play it.

Despite the above check marks in California Flag's favor, and despite my lingering concern that Desert Code needed one start to freshen off the layoff, I still had enough faith that with his first run on the leader, he would get to the wire just ahead of Flag and Get Funky. As it turns out, he came up empty in the stretch and faded to 7th. What makes it even more painful is that even from a value perspective, he was the wrong play. His projected win/place payout of $16.40 equals the place payout of California Flag...whose capped win payout of $42 meant a total of $58.40 for the 44 players in the tournament who made that bold play.

The moral of the story? Trust your process. When you drill down and find a key race, or key comparable races, don't be afraid to make the bold play. OK, lesson learned. It's time to tackle Saturday's card and get back into this thing.

Nattily Attired, But Not Well Armed

The old boy, Evening Attire, ventured down I-95 to Philadelphia Park to nab his first stakes victory outside of New York, The Greenwood Cup Handicap. After stalking very reasonable fractions through the first mile, Evening Attire started making his towards the front, making the lead at the top of the stretch and pulling away with every stride to an 8 length victory. Sent off as the co-2nd choice, he paid $6.40 to win and $3.20 to place, for a tournament score of $9.60.

That moved our total in the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge to $106.80, good enough for a lead of $13.40.

We weren't quite as fortunate in Saturday's 2nd leg, the San Diego Handicap, as Well Armed proved to be well rested after his journey to Dubai. After contesting early fractions of :23.29 and :46.89, the Tiznow gelding still had plenty in the tank to hold off Surf Cat and the fast closing Mostacolli Mort. Sent off at 9.70-to-1, the late running Mort was the play here, based on a combination of lingering doubts about speed holding at Del Mar, the poor record of US horses in their first outing after Dubai, and the ability of Tyler Baze to sit a good trip with this late runner. Had they gone another furlong, or even another 1/16th, we might be celebrating another score. As it is, we were fortunate that our closest competitors were looking for value in the San Diego as well, as none of them had Well Armed or Surf Cat.

All told, we stretched our lead a little by hitting 1 of 2 on a chalky day. Stay tuned as we continue our march towards the National Handicapping Championship.

One Step Closer

Two weeks into the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge, and the Frugal Capper sits alone in FIRST!

Thanks to a well-thought-out Mistical Plan in the Princess Rooney Handicap (GI) and Benny being Bullish in the Smile Sprint (GII), I have a $9 lead on my nearest competitors and sit atop a field of over 2,500 handicappers vying for just three spots.

Let's hope this mix of decent handicapping and good racing luck continues into the fall!!

Breeders' Cup...Win and I'm In

The dream is still alive! While I haven't been able to handicap nearly as much as I had hoped this year...and have been able to write about it even less...there still remains a small flicker of hope that one of the qualifying spots for the National Handicapping Championship has my name on it.

Things certainly got off to a good start in the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge on Saturday, as Notional and Presious Passion both hit the wire first, to the delight of myself and 18 others who wagered they would.

There is a lot of racing between now and October, but for one weekend at least, the Frugal Capper was on top of his game.

Whiff!

Once is an anomaly, twice is a trend. Surprisingly, amazingly, uncharacteristically, speed is holding on at Keeneland. It happened Friday, an occurrence I was willing to write off as fluke and happenstance. When it happened early yesterday afternoon, I started to second guess my play in the Lexington...but not enough to change a damn thing.

The super was filled out with two horses who ran real fast early, and two that ran sorta fast late. Samba Rooster blitzed a 1/2 in :45.21, with a :22.5 second quarter - that's the type of bottled lightning that usually results in 10th place finishes at Keeneland. This time, it meant holding on for 2nd at 17/1 and blowing up the exotic tickets.

Less impressively, Behindatthebar was able to close willingly into the fast early fractions, although his come home fractions won't put him on any Top 10 radars. It was a professional score for the Pletcher-trained son of Forest Wildcat, if not a stirring one.

Congrats to those who took down the $6958 super ($1) or the $1227 tri ($1). Well played.