California Dreamin'

Been a while since the Capper has found time to rant, rave and vent, but yesterday's Morvich Handicap (GIII) on the downhill turf course at Oak Tree @ Santa Anita gave me reasons aplenty to unload this morning.

As a "Win and You're In" qualifier, the Morvich also served as a midweek play in the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge, where the Frugal Capper is now in 22nd place after a bad case of thirditis two weeks ago and yesterday's misstep.

A quick scan of the past performances showed Get Funky to be a somewhat vulnerable favorite and nowhere near the value we're looking for in tournament play. From there, I gave strong consideration to Rebellion, easily the class of the field but ultimately shortening up too much for his late run to take a short price. After also giving strong consideration to Ten Maropa and One Union, I had finally narrowed it down to Desert Code, 8/1 on the morning line, and California Flag, a 30/1 bomb that I couldn't get off of.

That was based on 2 things - his July 2nd race, an allowance race he wired comfortably at 6 furlongs over the Hollywood turf course, was faster at every call than the July 6th race over the same course that both One Union and Get Funky exited, with Get Funky prevailing by a head. With Tropic Storm scratching out, I was pretty sure the Flag would make a fairly easy lead, with Desert Code his only real pace pressure.

The second key was the jock/trainer angle: in 9 starts at Santa Anita over the past year, the Brian Koriner/Joseph Talamo pairing has hit at 33% (3 of 9), for a huge $5.58 ROI...meaning they've gotten a couple bombs to the wire on top.

So it seems like a great play, right? Like the kind of play that you need to make to win a tournament, right? You're right, it was. Unfortunately, I didn't play it.

Despite the above check marks in California Flag's favor, and despite my lingering concern that Desert Code needed one start to freshen off the layoff, I still had enough faith that with his first run on the leader, he would get to the wire just ahead of Flag and Get Funky. As it turns out, he came up empty in the stretch and faded to 7th. What makes it even more painful is that even from a value perspective, he was the wrong play. His projected win/place payout of $16.40 equals the place payout of California Flag...whose capped win payout of $42 meant a total of $58.40 for the 44 players in the tournament who made that bold play.

The moral of the story? Trust your process. When you drill down and find a key race, or key comparable races, don't be afraid to make the bold play. OK, lesson learned. It's time to tackle Saturday's card and get back into this thing.

Nattily Attired, But Not Well Armed

The old boy, Evening Attire, ventured down I-95 to Philadelphia Park to nab his first stakes victory outside of New York, The Greenwood Cup Handicap. After stalking very reasonable fractions through the first mile, Evening Attire started making his towards the front, making the lead at the top of the stretch and pulling away with every stride to an 8 length victory. Sent off as the co-2nd choice, he paid $6.40 to win and $3.20 to place, for a tournament score of $9.60.

That moved our total in the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge to $106.80, good enough for a lead of $13.40.

We weren't quite as fortunate in Saturday's 2nd leg, the San Diego Handicap, as Well Armed proved to be well rested after his journey to Dubai. After contesting early fractions of :23.29 and :46.89, the Tiznow gelding still had plenty in the tank to hold off Surf Cat and the fast closing Mostacolli Mort. Sent off at 9.70-to-1, the late running Mort was the play here, based on a combination of lingering doubts about speed holding at Del Mar, the poor record of US horses in their first outing after Dubai, and the ability of Tyler Baze to sit a good trip with this late runner. Had they gone another furlong, or even another 1/16th, we might be celebrating another score. As it is, we were fortunate that our closest competitors were looking for value in the San Diego as well, as none of them had Well Armed or Surf Cat.

All told, we stretched our lead a little by hitting 1 of 2 on a chalky day. Stay tuned as we continue our march towards the National Handicapping Championship.

One Step Closer

Two weeks into the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge, and the Frugal Capper sits alone in FIRST!

Thanks to a well-thought-out Mistical Plan in the Princess Rooney Handicap (GI) and Benny being Bullish in the Smile Sprint (GII), I have a $9 lead on my nearest competitors and sit atop a field of over 2,500 handicappers vying for just three spots.

Let's hope this mix of decent handicapping and good racing luck continues into the fall!!

Breeders' Cup...Win and I'm In

The dream is still alive! While I haven't been able to handicap nearly as much as I had hoped this year...and have been able to write about it even less...there still remains a small flicker of hope that one of the qualifying spots for the National Handicapping Championship has my name on it.

Things certainly got off to a good start in the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge on Saturday, as Notional and Presious Passion both hit the wire first, to the delight of myself and 18 others who wagered they would.

There is a lot of racing between now and October, but for one weekend at least, the Frugal Capper was on top of his game.

Whiff!

Once is an anomaly, twice is a trend. Surprisingly, amazingly, uncharacteristically, speed is holding on at Keeneland. It happened Friday, an occurrence I was willing to write off as fluke and happenstance. When it happened early yesterday afternoon, I started to second guess my play in the Lexington...but not enough to change a damn thing.

The super was filled out with two horses who ran real fast early, and two that ran sorta fast late. Samba Rooster blitzed a 1/2 in :45.21, with a :22.5 second quarter - that's the type of bottled lightning that usually results in 10th place finishes at Keeneland. This time, it meant holding on for 2nd at 17/1 and blowing up the exotic tickets.

Less impressively, Behindatthebar was able to close willingly into the fast early fractions, although his come home fractions won't put him on any Top 10 radars. It was a professional score for the Pletcher-trained son of Forest Wildcat, if not a stirring one.

Congrats to those who took down the $6958 super ($1) or the $1227 tri ($1). Well played.

The Coolmore Lexington

If you learned anything from last week's Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (GI)...please tell me what it was. That race raised more red flags and question marks than any other prep race this year.

Using it as a template for the Lexington may prove foolhardy, but we will give it a shot.

Atoned (#1) ships in two weeks after he came up empty in the lane in the Illinois Derby (GII), to try the Poly for the first time. His only work over the surface suggests he may do some running today...I'm suggesting differently. Toss.

On the other hand, Salute the Sarge (#2) enters off a win in the 6 furlong San Miguel and is 6-for-6 in the exacta on the plastic. Getting 8.5 panels will be a stretch for him...we expect Michael Baze will get him to keep going.

Other tosses include:
Samba Rooster (#3), an early burner exiting allowance company, he couldn't last at a mile on the dirt, he'll be going backwards after a half.

St. Joe (#4), another speedball who will be done long before the real racing starts

Riley Tucker (#10), a pace presser who will be a little too close, too early and come up flat in the lane

Red Sandy (#11), in against winners for the first time, he'll need to improve about 12 lengths to sniff a piece of the super.

That leaves the 2,5,6,7,8,9 as our tableau from which to make a play.

Tomcito (#8), the Peruvian wonderhorse, fired a bullet in his only work over the Keeneland surface on Tuesday. His late running style is a good fit here - he'll be picking off tired rivals even if he doesn't like the Poly. He'll also be a huge underlay, so I'm not sure how much I will use him in the exotics.

Racecarp Rhapsody (#5), Behindatthebar (#7) and Big Glen (#9) are grinders with excellent records on synthetics. I'll lump them together in my keys and hope the public ignores them.

The upsetter in the mix, with a morning line of 20/1, is Felon (#6). His worktab (over both Poly and turf) shows nothing but bullets, he's by Stephen Got Even, so he will relish the extra 1/2 panel, he has raced exclusively on this surface and he's making only his 4th lifetime start, which suggests he has plenty of upside. What stands out, though, are his connections. Trainer Michael Maker is hitting with 32% of the runners he sends out in '08; Julian Leparoux is on fire lately at Keeneland; and when those two hook up, they hit the wire first 38% of the time.

I'll be keying Felon on the bottom of my tri and super plays, with Salute the Sarge on top of them. A 2-7-6-5 finish will send me to the window to cash multiple tickets.

Ventline

In retrospect, launching a blog at roughly the same time my daughter was born may not have been the best idea. The time available to handicap the races has been truncated dramatically, leaving little-to-no time to write about it.

Yesterday's events, however, require a certain amount of venting.

The Keeneland card featured a record Pick 6 carryover of just over $300,000, a sum that jumped to over $1 million by the time the gates opened on the first leg of the Pick 6. By the time it was over, my first or second choices had won 5 of the 6 races, with the sole outlier being a race won by my 3rd choice. So I was one of the 41 ticket cashers who took down the $18,000 payout, right?

No. Ridiculously, no. You see, I wasn't satisfied with my coverage in a couple races and wanted to go a little deeper. Being on a limited budget, however, and not willing to make another deposit mid-month, I needed to fatten the bankroll a little in order to do so. In my greed, I played and missed the first couple races at Keeneland, depleting my account just enough so that I could no longer play my 'AAAAAA' ticket, i.e. the ticket that covers every likely winner if each race is run the way I anticipate it. As I mentioned above, each race was very close to form, and every single winner was in my 'A' column. However, because I was a damn fool, I had to toss a couple A- horses, I'm left holding a couple worthless tickets and writing about the $18,000 payout that I didn't win.

^%$*#!!!

Tampa Bay Derby (GIII)

War Pass doesn't need to win and has only one posted workout since his Allowance win on 2/24, so don't take anything lower than 1/5 on him today.

Seriously, the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) offers very little in terms of wagering propositions on top, so the challenge here is to find the likeliest place horse and salvage some value.

Big Truck will likely go off as the second choice, right around his morning line of 9/2. He is an honest runner, though he hasn't shown much speed to date. That may change today, however, if the bullets he's fired his last two works translate to the afternoon. In a short field with little class besides War Pass, Big Truck is the only plausible upsetter (and an unlikely one at that), and is the most likely to be moving well late. We'll play the Tagg entry and hope the Juvy champ isn't asked for any run late.

Good to be back

As I am finding out, parenthood and a heavy workload leave little time for handicapping the races. On those rare occasions I do find the time, there isn't much left over to write about it.

To recap the last month or so, my last posted race was the Sam F. Davis (GIII) at Tampa Bay Downs, a successful play that saw Fierce Wind prevail. Since then, my only other handicapping activity of note was a disappointing finish in the NHC Tour tournament on March 1st. One bad wagering mistake and two no-running-room 4th place finishes resulted in a disappointing finish. The top 10% earned Tour points, and when my 14/1 bomb failed to fire in the last leg, I had to settle for a finish in the top 1/3rd.

So it goes.

Sam F. Davis @ Tampa Bay

At first glance, I like Cornelio Velasquez and Fierce Wind (#4) to wire the field at 6/1 or better. I'll have to see how the Fritchie runs before I make my play. Others to watch in this field are Z Humor (#8), the 9/5 morning line favorite who gets Go Go Gomez back in the irons today; Smooth Air (#7), a burner making his two-turn debut; and Wise Answer (#1), who returns to the dirt after bombing on the green in his last race.

Since I'll actually be making my plays at my local simulcast facility today (a rarity now with the Baby Capper), my next post will be a redux of today's plays.

Barbara Fritchie @ Laurel

A 7 furlong dash for the ladies over the dirt at Laurel, on paper the Barbara Fritchie (GII) looks pretty chalky.

Control System (#8) is the clear morning line favorite at 8/5, and will likely be sent to the gate at something closer to 1/2. As we've said repeatedly already, tournament handicapping isn't just about picking winners, it is about picking winners that have value. We will have to wait until post time to determine Control System's value, relative to the rest of the field.

There are really only two others I'll be watching, and I will have to get them at a price to play them.

Draw a line through For Kisses' (#3) last outing, where she was blocked just as she was making her late run, and her running lines suggest she is a strong contender to make the exacta. At 10/1 or higher, that should deliver a greater ROI paying place-only than Control System will in the top spot.

If we can't get For Kisses at double digit odds, Oprah Winney is the other logical play to consider. I anticipate she'll be overlaid at ~8/1 off her dull outing last month. A return to her late summer form of 2007 gets her to the wire on top...as does a repeat of her performance in last year's Fritchie.

If neither of those pan out, we will eat some chalk and hope the race runs true to form.

Las Virgenes

As projected, Golden Doc A won the Las Virgenes, gamely holding off Lovely Isle by a length. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite, however, she didn't offer any value in tournament play, paying $8 on a $2 Win/Place wager.

So here is the day's tally - picked both winners, but returned $0 because neither delivered enough value to play in a tournament. Conversely, had I played them both and wagered a total of $8, I would have returned $14.40, for a net profit of $6.40 and an ROI of just over 1.75:1...an ROI that if carried over two days and 30 races would have placed me 2nd in the 2007 DRF National Handicapping Championship.

I'm not convinced going 'by the book' is necessarily the way to go, at least not after my first week playing under tournament conditions.

Wow

Pyro looked every bit the part of a top Derby contender, biding his time through the first 3/4 mile, then making a menacing midtrack move to win the Risen Star in dominating fashion. He paid $3.80 to win, $2.60 to place. A $4 Win/Place play would have returned $6.40, for a profit of $2.40. That won't get it done in tournament play.

Despite Blackberry Road not having any running room and failing to hit the board, we played that race the right way.

Onto the Las Virgenes.

Risen Star update

Looks like we'll have to go with Plan Uh Oh in the Risen Star (GIII), as Pyro is at 6/5 with 10 minutes to post, and Check it Twice is scratched out.

I'm keeping an eye on the tote and leaning towards Blackberry Road, a late runner exiting a strong finish in the Lecomte (GIII) with a 90 BSF.

Z Fortune stands at 7/2 with 9 minutes - pass.

The Darp (#7) will lead them around for a while. Who knows, if he gets away with crawling fractions, he might stick around late, too. Doubtful, but might be worth a play at 30-1.

Rich Young Ruler looks good in the post parade, another bomb worth a slight look at 50-1.

It's 5 minutes to post and Pyro is still 6/5. As much as I'd like to nail a bomb here with The Darp, I'm going with Blackberry Road in my tournament play. Let's hope he upsets Pyro and keeps the latter's Future odds around 15-1.

Risen Star and Las Virgenes

Today will kick off our trial run for playing handicapping tournaments. We will use DRF's Races of the Week as our 'mandatory' plays, make a $2 Win/Place wager on each race, and see how close we can come to getting a 2:1 return, the type of ROI that gives us a fighting chance in a tournament.

Here we go...

Risen Star (GIII) Race #9, Fair Grounds
It has been over 7 months since any horse other than undefeated Eclipse Award winner War Pass has beaten Pyro. The visually impressive son of Pulpit has been drilling morning workouts with Curlin and is primed for a very heady 3-year-old campaign. He is clearly the horse to beat in this strong Risen Star field, and he more than likely will.

The concern here is that he will likely go off at even money, a very bad proposition in a tournament format. For that reason (and the fact I'll be rooting hard against my top Kentucky Derby Futures play to salvage some value in Pool 1), I am looking elsewhere for the most likely 2nd-place finisher and possible upset winner.

Z Fortune is another strong candidate from the Asmussen barn, undefeated in 3 starts with a graded stakes win over this track in the Lecomte (GIII). He is hard to ignore and could very well upset his stablemate. He won't deliver enough value to play it that way, though, so I'm going with Pletcher entry Check it Twice. A winner of two straight, Check it Twice shows a strong Beyer progression, an impressive worktab and a powerful late move that should have him reeling in his tiring rivals alongside Pyro. At 12-1 on the morning line, he won't have to get the upper hand on the son of Pulpit to make this play payoff.

Look for Pyro (#8) to win the Risen Star, with our play, Check it Twice (#1), closing strong alongside him to place.



Las Virgenes (GI), Race #7, Santa Anita
This grade I test has a field of 7 ladies going a mile. Golden Doc A appears to be the most likely winner in this heat - at odds anywhere near her morning line (5/2), it might be worth making her my play. That is unlikely, however, so I will dig a little deeper into the field.

Divine Legacy makes her 3rd start after breaking her maiden last out, a huge class jump. What she does show that makes her worth playing is a nice Beyer jump in her first two-turn effort, and a worktab that indicates trainer Bill Currin has been pointing her to this race. A similar move forward today will put her squarely in the mix late, and her running line last out suggests she will relish mixing it up as they gun for the wire. Divine Legacy (#1) is the play at 7-1 or above; if we can't get that we'll fall back to Golden Doc A (#4) at 3-1 or better.

If both of those plays don't pan out, we'll try to hit a bomb with steady, if uninspiring, Czechers (#2), who will likely be sent off at 15-1 or higher.

I'm Back

After an unannounced, and unanticipated, three week hiatus, the Frugal Capper returns just in time for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1. We'll get to that tomorrow after we watch today's Derby Preps, where we expect Pyro to stamp his name at the top of the contender list and Check It Twice to join the discussion.

We'll also take a quick look at the Magna 5, a multi-track Pick 5 with a free play option on Xpressbet that pays out real cash. That's the type of risk/reward scenario the Frugal Capper loves to play.

We are changing up our system, too, with an eye towards qualifying for the 2008 National Handicapping Championship. The NHC identifies the best handicapper by dictating the type of play that is made - a $2 Win/Place wager on one horse per race, 8 mandatory races and 7 optionals per day, for two days. After 30 races and $120 in wagers, the top dollar total takes down the prize.

This year, only 1 of the 268 qualifiers was able to double his money. As we are sure to learn, doubling up on W/P plays is much tougher game.

I'll be back later with this week's tournament plays.

Return to Santa Anita this week

We head back to Santa Anita this week for the San Marco Stakes (GII).

The race shapes up with a soft pace up front, where Masterly (#4) figures to set most of the fractions. Niagara Causeway (#2) will likely be placed just off his shoulder. Neither will be pressing too much, as their only hope to hang on in this 1 1/4 mile turf route will be to lead the field on the merry-go-round all the way to the wire.

That won't happen. Champs Elysees (#6) stands well above the rest in this heat. Normally, the Frugal Capper doesn't touch a 6/5 morning line that will likely be bet down to 2/5 by the time the gates open. We'll spread a little to allow for a mild upset, but we're not counting on it. Champs will be our heavy play on top.

Should he get another bad trip, similar to his 2nd place finish in the Hollywood Turf Cup, look for Decado (#5) to steal this race at a decent price. Medici Code (#7) and Obrigado (#8) will be involved late, just not enough to get past Champs Elysees.

The play, centered around a Champs Elysees - Decado exacta and enough spread to allow for some variance.

$.10 Super 5-6/5-6-7-8/5-6-7-8/All $6
$.10 Super 6/5-7-8/ALL/ALL $9
$.10 Super 6/5/7-8/ALL $1
$.10 Super 5/6/7-8/ALL $1
$1 Exacta Key 6/5-7-8 $3

Total Investment: $20

Checking the books

Before we get into today's play, we need to tally up our loss last week. Our ROI has been gradually eroding, we'll turn it around this week.

Invested $152.80
Returned $330.40
ROI 2.2:1

The LeComte (GIII)

The Road to the Roses gets in full swing this week, with graded Derby preps at the Louisiana Fair Grounds and Santa Anita. With the weather and drainage problems that Santa Anita has had recently, we will stay away from the San Rafael (GII) and focus our attention on the traditional dirt of the Fair Grounds.

The LeComte (GIII) boasts a field of eight Triple Crown hopefuls after this morning's scratch of Star Guitar. Blackberry Road (#6) enters as the marquee attraction and morning line favorite. The Gone West colt has hit the board in two straight graded stakes efforts, his last a career best 85 Beyer in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) where he finished a half-length behind Anak Nakal, a top Derby contender. He was full of run late in that race, and we expect that to be the cast today as well. We also expect the slight turn back from 1 1/16 miles to today's mile will be enough to compromise his chances to win.


Texas Fever (#1) makes his first start on the conventional dirt. His recent work tab suggests it will be his preferred surface after four starts on the synthetic and one attempt on the lawn.


Our top choice is The Darp (#2), who gets Robby Albarado in the irons. Albarado switches mounts today after piloting Mad Flatter (#7) in his last two outings. The Darp handily beat maidens over this same mile course in his last outing, and we are looking for him to top that effort today. He'll have to hold off a late run by Macho Again (#8) to take top honors. We think he will.


The play:

$.10 super 1-2/1-2-8/ALL/ALL $12
$1 tri key 2/1-8 $2
$1 exacta box 1-2-8 $6

Total investment - $20

What the Truck?!

By the time the field of sophomores entered the gate yesterday in the Hutcheson (GII), I had already mentally ripped up my tickets.

I posted early afternoon that two of our speed entries had scratched out, weakening my position on Big Truck.

Watching him in the post parade weakened it completely. Shortly after the horses moved on to the main track, Javier Castellano sent the Truck on a sharp gallop. That meant one of two things - either the Big'un was full of run on the sealed track and he was trying to settle him down (highly unlikely), or he was unresponsive and he was trying to get his attention (much more likely). I held out hope it was the former, at least until they came to the gate.

In a 7 furlong dash with plenty of speed up front, the last thing you want to see from your top choice is a flat-footed walk to the gate. Big Truck was flat-footed, head slightly down, as he walked to the gate. There was NOTHING about his body language that said he was ready to run, and body language doesn't lie. He wasn't ready, and he didn't run.

Conversely, Smooth Air (#5) was on his toes and clearly sitting on a big effort. I'll take solace in a last minute saver play on him, but that doesn't do anything for my running tally, which has been gradually eroding for several weeks now.

We'll go back to the charts and turn this thing around next week. For now, this is where we stand:

Invested $132.80
Returned $330.40
ROI 2.5:1

Change in Complexion

With the scratches of Grand Minstrel (#2) and Cool Coal Man (#3), the complexion of today's Hutcheson (GII) has changed. With 40% of our early hot pace scratched out, you may want to take a closer look at Tiz It (#1), Smooth Air (#5) and Coal Play (#10).

Tiz It should make the lead on the rail fairly easily. With John Velazquez in the irons and less pace pressure early, the 1 looms a bigger threat to prevail. Ditto Smooth Affair, who gets south Florida's best jockey (Manoel Cruz) today. Lastly, Coal Play should get a better trip from the outside post.

As my Uncle Pat used to say, "a card laid is a card played", so I will stick to my original play and root a little harder for the Big Truck to rumble through for the win.

The New and Improved Gulfstream?

The newness at Gulfstream isn't in question; whether or not it's improved is open to debate, and there is plenty of it. Having not set foot there since the renovations, I'll keep my opinions to what I see happening on the track.

Today, a fresh crop of 3 year olds takes to the main track for the Hutcheson (GII), a 7 furlong dash that features plenty of legitimate speed up front. Expect Tiz It (#1), Grand Minstrel (#2), Cool Coal Man (#3), Smooth Air (#5), & Coal Play (#1)0 to all gun to the front down the backstretch, with Coal Play likely compromised by the wide post and hung 3-4 wide in the turn. With the talent in this field, that may be just enough to keep him out of the exacta.

Immediately behind that wave and settling in for a fierce stretch drive will be Halo Najib (#4) and Big Truck (#7). The winner will likely come from this duo, with Tiz It and Smooth Air staying the trip to make it interesting.

At 12/1 on the morning line, we expect Big Truck to be bet down substantially. We don't think he'll be bet down enough to make him an underlay. Exiting a troubled 4th in the Remsen and turning back to a distance he has won at before in stakes company, Big Truck gets a Tagg/Castellano combo that hit at 40% in 2007. He is the pick.

Pinning big hopes on Big Truck, here is the play:

$.10 super 7/1-4-5/1-2-3-4-5-6-10/1-2-3-4-5-6-10 $9.00
$1 exacta key 7/1-4-5 $3
$1 tri key 7/1-4-5 $6
$2 win #7

Total Investment = $20

And They're Off!

Approximately 15 hours into the new year, and 4 months before the 1st Saturday in May, Calder Race Course officially kicked off the 2008 Kentucky Derby campaign with the Tropical Park Derby (GIII). A 1 1/8th mile test over the turf, the year's first Derby on the Derby Trail propelled Cowboy Cal to the top of the contender list. Although the Cowboy will have to make the transition to dirt at some along the Derby Trail if he hopes to prevail in the Run for the Roses, it is important to note that Barbaro launched his 2006 Derby campaign in this same race.

One important thing to note in comparing the two races - while both winners ran similarly, tracking an honest early pace, Barbaro's come home time (his last furlong) of :11.4 seconds stamped him as a champion in the making. Cowboy Cal's come home time of :12.1 is impressive, but he'll need to move up a few lengths to be the top choice when the gate open on May 3rd.

Happy Birthday, Derby Winner!

Yep, today is the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner's birthday...along with every other thoroughbred born in 2005. As the calendar gradually creeps towards the first saturday in May, we will track all the Derby preps and try to stay up-to-date on this crop of the 3 year olds. If they come anywhere close to last year's we're in for a helluva campaign.