Year End Tally (maybe)

I'm not really sure what this week will bring, so it is 3/1 against me playing anything next weekend. Assuming I don't outrun my odds, here is my year end tally.

Invested $112.80
Returned $330.40
ROI 2.9:1

We've learned a few things about how to translate good handicapping into good wagering, we've taken a couple bad beats, and we've made a couple abysmal plays. When we started out, our stated goal was an ROI of 3:1 - we are hovering right around it.

Be safe and have a very happy holiday season.

Happy Holidays

That is a couple minutes I'll never get back. With that piss poor play, the Frugal Capper is licking his wounds and turning his attention to Christmas.

Bombs away

When Frankel + leading jockey at current meet + pace scenario + work tab = 12/1, the Frugal Capper will be all over it every time.

I expect Shore Do to get bet down somewhat, but he's still a juicy overlay at 8/1, and our holiday hopes rest on him driving through midtrack to take the CashCall Futurity.

The play:

$.10 super 9/1-2-10/1-2-10/1-2-3-5-8-10-12 ($3)
$.10 super 9/1-2-10/1-2-3-5-8-10-12/1-2-10 ($3)
$.10 super 2-9/2-9/1-3-5-8-10-12/1-3-5-8-10-12 ($6)
$1 Exacta key 9/1-2
$1 Tri key 9/1-2-10

Total investment $20

All I want for Christmas

Is to nail a dime super with a bomb on top. The CashCall Futurity (GI) might give us that opportunity.

Massive Drama (#2) and Colonel John (#8) enter with most of the attention, with Colonel John given the slight edge as the 5/2 morning line choice. Both are lightly raced, and and both own impressive last out wins over the Hollywood Cushion Track. The Colonel gets the morning line nod because his win was at this distance, while Drama is stretching out for his first try at two turns. They are deserving of the accolades and should go off as the top two choices.

We will try to beat them.

Massive Drama has plenty of speed drawn outside him. In his first two starts, he has gunned to the front. He'll have to do that today to avoid being bottled up into the first turn, and he'll be pressed from the inside as well.

Sierra Sunset (#1) has shown he'll press the pace, contesting quick fractions (:22 1/5, :46 1/5) in his first try at two turns, a win in the Cal Cup Juvenile on November 3rd. His work tab since that effort has been sharp. If you're willing to forgive his only Hollywood try on July 4th (38 Beyer), you'll get a Russell Baze piloted winner at two turns at very tasty odds.

Others that will be on the engine early are Eaton's Gift (#4) a recent allowance winner trying graded stakes company for the first time; (#7) Tres Borrachos, a maiden graduate taking a huge step up in his 4th start; and (#12) Into Mischief, a Harlan's Holiday colt who should like the added distance.

Of the early speed, we expect Sunset, Drama and Mischief to be around late.

Joining them when the real running begins at the top of the stretch will be (#11) Old Man Buck, a grinder who seems to prefer the turf, (#10) Monba, a Pletcher trainee who gets Gomez aboard for his stakes debut, and (#9) Shore Do, who takes the blinkers off in his first start since moving to Bobby Frankel's barn. (#3) Overextended will be winding up his late run, but won't join the leaders until the very end, if at all.

I've said before that the pace scenario always forms the basis for my play. The hot pace shapes up perfectly for Shore Do's late midtrack move. Frankel is hitting with 22% overall, and 25% off a short (31-60 day) layoff. Lastly, I'm a big fan of the blowout move/maintenance move work tab going into a stakes race, and Shore Do shows that.

We said were looking for a dime super with a bomb on top. I think we have it with 12/1 morning line Shore Do. The others in the mix include Sierra Sunset (who stands a good chance to hit the exacta), Massive Drama, Monba, Old Man Buck, Overextended and Into Mischief.

I'll spend a little more time structuring my ticket, then I'll be back shortly with this week's plays.

Quick bookkeeping update

In my disgust last week, I forgot to update my running tally. Here it is, with the expectation we'll add to our returns later today.

Invested - $92.80
Returned - $330.40
ROI - 3.6:1

Ouch

Bad beats hurt. Bad handicapping decisions hurt. We had both on Saturday.

Redaspen was wheeling back in two weeks to stretch out from 9 to 12 furlongs. We knew she'd give an honest effort, we didn't think it would be enough to win, and we had multiple plays with her in 2nd and 3rd. She won, impressively.

We thought My Rachel would back up after leading. She did. We thought she'd back up off the ticket. We were wrong, she held off our 3rd choice, Herboriste, for 4th.

If we get a break on either end of the ticket, we cash. Get breaks on both ends and we're cashing 3 tickets.

Ouch.

The La Prevoyante Handicap

It is back to the site of our last score, the turf course at Calder for the La Prevoyante Handicap (GII), a 1 1/2 marathon for older fillies and mares. This field of 12 presents plenty of value for exotic players and those who prefer playing the WPS parimutuels.

Dalvina enters off a win at this distance last out, bringing the top last out Beyer with her (100). In that race, the Long Island Handicap (GIII), she was well back early before launching an extended midtrack move and running off with a 3 1/2 length win. She is the deserving favorite today, although I expect her to be sent off much lower than her 3/1 morning line. She'll figure prominently in our play.

Here's a quick look at the field.

#1 Oh Deanne O (15/1)- She will be on the lead for a while, but not when it counts. There are too many late movers in here for her to win this marathon from the front, and likely too many for her to hold on for a piece of the exotics.

#2 My Rachel (5/1) - She was swallowed up by Dalvina when they hooked up in the Long Island Handicap. In that one, she drew off to a 6 length lead before backing up and holding onto the show. She will be swallowed up by several today. We'll be playing against the morning line 3rd choice.

#3 Green Girl (FR) (4/1) - Another who enters out of the Long Island, she has also taken on Breeders Cup Champion English Channel and Canadian Horse of the Year Sealy Hill since crossing the Atlantic from France. She's yet to hit the board this year facing that company. She should find the going much easier here and will be one we expect to be a factor at the end.

#4 Jive (20/1) - 2 of 11 lifetime on turf, career best Beyer of 80 and making her stakes debut. A smart play if you need some losers to zero out a tax ticket. Otherwise, look elsewhere.

#5 Dalvina (3/1) - The class of this field, she will grind her way to the front. Whether she stays there is the question. I think she gets nabbed at the wire, but we'll have several plays on either side of that coin.

#6 Redaspen (12/1) - A grinder that we pegged in the My Charmer Handicap (GIII)super two weeks ago, she hasn't been off the board in 5 starts this year against slightly lesser company. Wheeling back that quickly to go 3 furlongs more against better is a stiff challenge. Expect another honest effort, just don't expect her to fire fresh. She will factor on the bottom of our exotics.

#7 Eres Magica (CHI) (6/1) - Mercurial filly is 2 of 2 in the exacta at this distance and enters off an 8 week layoff. She has run well fresh, but her speed figures seem a notch below the best in this field.

#8 Herboriste (GB) (12/1) - Her Beyers have ticked upwards as the distances have increased, and she has won both starts at 1 1/2 miles. She gets top rider Manoel Cruz aboard today, and she will need a smart ride to overcome big class jump she'll be making. The play here is that she'll be forwardly placed, make a middle move to snare the lead at the top of the stretch and be all out to hold on.

#9 Suaveness (20/1) - 0 for 3 on turf, having backed up at much shorter. Have to question what she is doing in this spot.

#10 I'm In Love (8/1) - A hard fought placing two back against Criminologist and Dance Away Capote was followed by a respectable 2nd on the Poly at Woodbine. She returns to the green, where she is in the tri 7 of 14 lifetime, and stretches out to a mile and a half for the first time. She will be moving the best late, and she gets Elvis Trujillo aboard, who has hit an amazing 8 of 13 for Kieran McLaughlin in 2006-07, and 3 of 4 at Calder. Another who stands a chance to hit the wire first for a nice price.

#11 Sans Souci Island (10/1) - Another who enters off the layoff, this filly is not afraid to mix it up, splitting foes to win in her first two starts. Her Beyers are trending in the right direction, and she posted a career top last out in her first try against stakes company. She will be flying late if she gets a running lane and stands to get a piece of the exotic.

#12 Indiansong (20/1) - Her graded stakes debut won't be a memorable one. Pass.

The play, with a lesson learned last week and a little more hedging than normal:

$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/3-5-8/3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8/3-5-8/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super key 5/3-6-8-10 ($2.40)
$.10 super box 3-5-6-8 ($2.40)
$.10 super wheel 3-5/3-5/6-8-10/6-8-10 ($1.20)

Total Investment $20.40 (slightly above our cap of $20, a nod to the value in this race)

A Rookie Mistake

I mentioned yesterday that after further review, we simply got beat in the Native Diver Handicap (GIII)...that's not entirely true. We made a $16.80 mistake that cost us $873.56, or an ROI of 52:1.

With the advent of dime supers, superfectas with a base bet of $.10 instead of the traditional $1.00 base, it is careless to have strong opinions about 3 horses and not wheel them around a super ticket. Unfortunately, that is exactly what we did on Saturday.

We felt strongly that Ravel (#1) was the class of the field. He ran a somewhat troubled 4th. We believed Racketeer (#8) was the only one in the field that could run down Ravel. He ran a solid 2nd. Lastly, we said that IF Isipingo (#5) ran to his turf form, he would be a factor late. He closed for 3rd. Had we played a straight tri ticket, it would have been 1-8-5 for a $2 minimum. Boxing those three would give us 6 combinations, for $6.

A dime super, however, would have given us 168 options AND given us a lot more exposure to the derivative outcomes of a 1-8-5 play. In layman's terms, we would have cashed a ticket. The Native Diver was a 10-horse field - wheeling the remaining 7 entries in all 4 slots in the super would have given us the following combinations, the last of which would have delivered the winning play at 52:1 ROI.

3x2x1x7 = $4.20
3x2x7x1 = $4.20
3x7x2x1 = $4.20
7x3x2x1 = $4.20

By comparison, wheeling the field around our three selections in a $1 trifecta play would have given us these combinations:

3x2x7 = $42
3x7x2 = $42
7x3x2 = $42

Again, the last combination delivered the winning play, at an ROI of 21:1.

Clearly, the dime super is a frugal capper's dream play. In the Native Diver, based on the same handicapping selections, it provided an ROI 2.5x higher than a $1 tri wheel, at an investment level 7.5x lower.

Although Saturday wasn't a winning day, it provided a very valuable wagering lesson. We'll see if we can put it into play soon.

After Further Review...

We simply got beat. I've watched the replay of the Native Diver Handicap a half dozen times, thinking I'd catch something that would explain Heatseeker's 30/1 upset, and I still haven't found it.

He got a great ride from Michael Baze, saving ground early then circling 4-wide and hammering down the middle of the track for a handy 1 1/4 length win.

Ravel never appeared comfortable, tugging Garrett Gomez early, then getting stuck behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch. By the time Go Go wheeled him into the 4-path, Ravel was spent and passed only the tiring early pacesetters. Had Gomez let him run up front early, it could be argued that he is classy enough to put away the early speed and hold off the late runners. While I would make that argument, that a better ride would have landed him no worse than 2nd, it wouldn't have done us any good at the teller's window.

We got beat by a 30/1 bomb, who we dismissed simply as "a little short to get this 9 furlong trip". It happens, it's racing.

Our tally to date:

Invested $72.40
Returned $330.40
ROI 4.6:1

Fair Grounds postmortem

We can only hope our play in the Native Diver Handicap (GIII) is anywhere near as accurate as our nonplay in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic.

Costa Rising was sent off as the overlaid 2/5 favorite. Seriously, he could have been sent at 1/9 and still have been underbet. We said he would make the lead - he did, by a length at the 1/4 call. We said his only pace pressure would be Southern Invasion - he was, running 2nd for 3/4s before fading to last. We said the only closer was Hallway, and he wouldn't get close - he was, and he didn't. And we said Costa Rising would win by daylight, with little urging - he did, drawing away for a 15+ length win under a hand ride.

He paid $2.80 to win, a tick above our $2.40 projection. The $2 exacta paid $9.20...or $4.60 on the dollar. Had we played the tri, with Costa on top, Hallway in second and wheeled the remainder on the bottom, our $3 play would have paid $21.30, or a staggering 7-to-1.

We'll keep an eye on the Fair Grounds now that we have a race under our belts. If only they were all that easy.

Native Diver Handicap

The Native Diver Handicap (GIII) is Ravel's (#1) race. He is a class above these, so much so that 10 months ago, prior to a leg injury that knocked him off the Derby trail, he was the wiseguy choice to win the Kentucky Derby. This son of Fusaichi Pegasus, out of Let (A.P. Indy), was bred to be that good and hasn't disappointed when he has made it to the starting gate.

This is his first graded stakes attempt against older males. That does nothing to dissuade me from keying him at the top, however, it just gives me hope that we'll get a little better value on him.

Underneath him, there are several question marks.

(#2) Hello Sunday showed a nice turn of foot in his last out to close into 3rd at this distance against a similar crowd. That same effort today should land similar results.

(#3) Arson Squad hasn't fired on synthetic yet, finishing no better than 4th in 3 tries, albeit against GI/GII company. He has plenty of raw speed, or at least had plenty before being gelded this spring. It is hard to tell whether he is running on empty, so to speak, or just hasn't taken to the man-made tracks.

(#4) Buzzard's Bay has won 2 of his last 4, all as the betting favorite. His two losses were dull efforts, beating only a combined 3 of 16 horses in finishing 7th and 8th. We are counting on another flat outing today.

(#5) Isipingo is 8 of 10 in the money lifetime, with all 10 starts on the grass. If his pace-stalking style translates to the Cushion Track, expect him to be a factor late.

(#6) Wanna Runner and (#7) Masterpiece will go as far as their speed will take them, which in this 1 1/8 mile event won't be enough.

(#8) Racketeer rallied late to win a stout Allowance route on this track in his last outing...on May 26th. The Frankel barn is hitting 27% off the layoff, and this Awesome Again colt has run well fresh. If any of these stands to get Ravel at the wire, it will be this one.

(#9) Heatseeker appears to be a little short to get this 9 furlong trip.

(#10) Bold Chieftain has yet to turn in a clunker, and he is 2 of 2 in the exacta on synthetic surfaces. His best likely isn't good enough to best the field, though, and the wide draw compromises his chances of saving ground into the first turn. He does get record-setting pilot Russell Baze, so we can expect his best.

We are going to play against Buzzards Bay, with only an $.80 hedge play in case he fires. If straight win bets are your play, take no less than 2/1 on Ravel and 4/1 on Racketeer. If Isipingo stays at or above his 15/1 morning line, that might be worth a play as well.

The Frugal Capper play:

$.10 super 1-8/1-8/2-3-5-10/2-3-5-10 ($2.40)
$.10 super 1/2-3-5-10/8/2-3-5-10 ($1.20)
$.10 super 4-8/1/4-8/2-3-5-10 ($.80)
$1 tri wheel 1/8/2-3-5-10 ($4)
$4 exacta 1-8
$2 exacta 8-1

Total play = $14.40

Go With What You Know

I don't know the Fair Grounds. I don't recall ever making a play there, nor have I ever handicapped a race at that track. That was clearly evident as I made my first trip through the Louisiana Champions Day past performances.

Costa Rising, last year's winner of this event, enters the race as the morning line choice, at a very generous 9/5. He should go off at 1/9. He turned back Southern Invasion, the only pace pressure he'll face, in their last meeting. The only runner with any late kick, Hallway, boasts (admits?) a career best Beyer of 84, a figure well below Costa's worst outing on dirt over the past year. Costa drew the rail, where he will naturally make the lead. He will win, by daylight, with little urging. He will pay $2.40 to win. The exacta will be $4.60, the tri about $14. That's how I see this race shaping up. Either it really is that easy, and we can make $.20 on the dollar, or I'm missing the idiosyncrasies that make this a more evenly matched heat. I'm not willing to spend any money to find out, which means we are headed to Hollywood Park for our play.

Stacking Some Cold Hard Today!

Just like we hoped, we flat nailed the My Charmer Handicap and hit the trifecta twice, walking away from the window with $330.40.

A quick recap of the race:
As expected, Bayou's Lassie jumped to the lead and only gave it up late, and grudgingly, holding on for her 2nd straight place finish in this race. She wasn't pressed as much as we expected, setting soft fractions of :24.07 and :48.87, which makes J'ray's win (and ours!) even more impressive.

J'ray got a great ride from Manoel Cruz, who quickly sensed the slow pace and placed her a little closer to the lead than is her norm, settling in comfortably 4 wide and waiting her turn. As we flat out nailed this morning, when the field bunched at the top of the stretch, J'ray circled them all and tracked down Bayou's Lassie in the middle of the track, gutting out a 3/4 length win.

Lastly, Redaspen, our 12/1 value play on the bottom of the trifecta lurked in 7th early, was 6th as the field turned for home, then got clean running room and gobbled up ground enough to take 3rd.

The one surprise is the flat outing from La Dolce Vita, who raced last early and passed only the tiring early speedsters to finish a dull 6th.

The tally thus far is a helluva lot better than you'll get on Wall St. right now, and a helluva lot more fun too.

Invested - $58
Returned - $330.40
ROI - 5.7 to 1

*Bonus Win* - We opted not to play the Bayakoa because, as quoted here yesterday, it looked "like a $9.40 Exacta"...it paid $9.20.

The My Charmer Handicap

It's a horses for courses day at Frugal Capper HQ, with that angle looming large in our play in the My Charmer Handicap, a Grade III for older fillies and mares over the Turf Course at Calder.

Look for the 8 (Bayou's Lassie) and the 10 (Annabill) to jump on top early and duel each other through a relatively quick first 1/2 mile, with the 7 involved up front as well. I'm expecting a :23.5 quarter and a :47.2 half mile, with the field bunching up at the top of the turn.

At that point, J'ray (#11) will start circling the field and gearing up for her mad dash down the middle of the track. She's been in the exacta 2-of-2 at Calder, and we are looking for her to get up just in time today. She'll be fending off La Dolce Vita, who enters off slight freshening and has run well off the layoff at this distance in the past (93 Beyer in a $100K Optional Claimer in January). They will both be reeling in Bayou's Lassie, who has won 4 of her 5 starts at Calder, her only defeat coming by a length in last year's running of the My Charmer.

To fill out our trifecta we'll add a couple grinders whose style fits the pace scenario and need only a clean trip to pick up a piece of this race. Cozzi Capital is a steadily improving 3 year old who has hit the tote board 7-of-7 lifetime at Calder, winning her only start at today's distance two back. Running back to that effort today may be just enough to get her on our trifecta ticket. Redaspen is another who looks to close into the trifecta.

The pick to win is J'ray (#11). If that is your preferred play, don't take any less than the 3/1 morning line on her.

Our exotic plays are as follows, let's hope we nailed it and can walk to the window to cash multiple tickets:

$1 tri wheel - 11/2-8/2-3-4-7-8-10 ($10)
$1 tri key - 11/2-8 ($2)
$1 tri key - 2-8/11/3-4 ($4)
$1 tri key - 11/2-8/3-4 ($4)

Tota play = $20

Decisions, Decisions

After last week's nice bounce back at Hollywood, I was excited to see that the Bayakoa Handicap was one of our choices for Race of the Week. A Grade II for older fillies and mares, the Bayakoa is a 1 1/16th mile race over Hollywood's Cushion Track. That is right in our wheelhouse.

The downside of this race is the short field. With only seven entered, three of whom are GI winners, it will be hard to find a reasonable wagering proposition that offers any value. At first glance, this looks like a $9.40 Exacta, $21.60 Trifecta type race. If that holds true, we'll have to nail the EX cold and only go three-deep in our TRI wager to get the kind of ROI we're looking for.

By contrast, our other Race of the Week choice boasts a more evenly matched field of 11 older fillies and mares. The My Charmer Handicap is a Grade III race going 1 1/8th miles over the turf course at Calder. Three of these entries have a clearly established pattern of making or pressing the lead, a strong indication we'll get an honest pace scenario up front.

So do we go with one of our most profitable tracks and take lesser value, or bite off a juicy, closely matched turf race and try to make a big hit?

I'll pore it over and get back to you.

Hollywood, Hollywood, Finally up to some good

Somebody, please, explain to the Frugal Capper how we can pore over the data for four races at Aqueduct and return $ZERO on a mythical $16 investment, then head to Hollywood and do nothing but play bombs to get back into the mix and return $74 in 6 races. Please?

It took a return of $15.65 per race to win this qualifier. This handicapper returned roughly $12.35/race at Hollywood, enough to justify going back for tomorrow's guaranteed $1 million Pick 6.

Thankfully, the Big A is in our rear view mirror. I may box the field in an exacta tomorrow just to cash a ticket at that money pit.

The final tally - Frugal Capper finished tied for 286th of over 4,000 entrants. In college, that would have earned an A, about the 93rd percentile. That and a five spot will get me a latte at Starbucks.

On a very positive note, my Mounties played efficiently today and are 60 minutes from playing for the national championship.

Big Awful at the Big A

The dry spell at Aqueduct continues, as the Mushka circled the field at the top of the stretch and drove home to win the Demoisel.

My notes on Mushka: "right style, little value; play against"

Well, she was more valuable than our get-well play, who led through the early fractions (wish she'd been in the race before to post that :47.2 half mile) and got cooked late.

We'll go with one more bomb at Aqueduct, then head west to the cozy Cushion Track of Hollywood Park, where we've actually cashed some tickets and are in the black for the year.

Ofer Two

Well shit. The expected pace duel never developed, as Shopton Lane and Now a Victor led the field all the way around the track, with Victor overtaking Lane late and holding on for a solid win.

Our original choice, Dr V's Magic got stuck inside and had to alter course, ruining his chances of hitting the exacta. Our bomb made a strong late run for 4th, doing us no good whatsoever.

The soft first half mile (:49+) was too much to overcome for Notice Me Now. We were looking for something in the :46.5 range; had we gotten that from the two frontrunners, I feel pretty confident the 4 would have gotten up for the place and nice ticket.

We didn't get our pace, he didn't get his race, we're 0-for-2 and scrambling now.

Calculate Risk

The 2nd leg offers a chance to get healthy, with a sometimes-late-running 25-1 bomb sitting on a chance to pick up the pieces of an early pace duel. We're rolling the dice here and moving off our 5/1 pick, in the hopes the #4 can get up for the place and a higher gross payout.

We'll either be back to our original game plan or flying blind the rest of the way.

Change of plans

With first time starter Regal Prince reeling in our pick Lyke a Hurricane with a furlong to go, at 14/1, our trip to Vegas has already taken a detour. We'll need to get home a couple winners over the next two to chip away at that lead, otherwise it will be bombs away at Hollywood.

TVG/NHC Qualifier picks

With Aqueduct sufficiently handicapped and Hollywood still a ways off, here are my initial plays in the first four legs of the tournament.

1st leg (AQU #4) - a maiden special weight field of 12 going 6 furlongs kicks it off. My choice is #2, Lyke a Hurricane. Adding blinkers and 1st time Lasix, he will be sent to the front and lead them for as long as they let him. The hope here is he is out front every call and gets to the wire at somewhere close to his 6/1 morning line. My basement on him is 4/1, meaning if he drops below that I will look elsewhere for comparable value, possibly the #10, Lee Stewart, who's barn is hitting at 41% in their 2nd start. He's at 12/1 morning line, and I expect that to jump above 20/1 by post time. The other possible value play is the #1, Raffie's Deer, who has put forth winning efforts in 3 of his last 4 but hasn't broken through. He's 3/1 on the morning line; if that drifts up to 6/1 or so, we'll take a long look at him.

2nd leg (AQU #5) - the Grade III Discovery Handicap, for 3 year olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Shopton Lane (#1) and Now a Victor (#7) will duel through early fractions and set up the late run of Helsinki (#3) and Dr. V's Magic (#5). Although Helsinki merits slight favoritism, I'm looking for a little Magic on the strength of his recent worktab, at a price likely more than double that of Helsinki.

3rd leg (AQU #6) - the Grade II Demoisel, 2 year old fillies stretching out to 1 1/8 miles on the main track. There will be plenty of early speed to set the fractions we need for Melissa Jo (#1) to parlay a rail-skimming trip into a monster move at the top of the turn and an impressive win. I doubt she'll go off at her m/l odds of 5/1, but anything above 3/1 is enough for me. If she is bet down below that, I'm rolling the dice that all the early speed will be cooked and Home Crowd, 2 of 2 in the exacta at the Big A, picks up most of the pieces at somewhere around 18-20/1.

I'll be back with any in-tournament changes, a leaderboard update (hopefully with Frugal at the top) and my Hollywood plays.

The TVG National Handicapping Championship lineup

The lineup is set for tomorrow, with 4 races from Aqueduct and 6 races from Hollywood Park. The Frugal Capper has had some success on the new Cushion Track at Hollywood, so I'm feeling pretty good about the last 6 races of the qualifier. I can't say the same about Aqueduct, however. It's been several weeks since I even played a race there, finally throwing in the towel after a severe cold spell at the Big A.

In a short while, I will provide a summary of the 10-race card and my first impression of how the races shape up.

Programming Alert

This week we are going to do something a little different. As most of you likely don't know, the National Handicapping Championship is held each January in Las Vegas. It has been the this handicapper's demi-decade long dream to qualify for this event.

In my most recent attempt, an online qualifier at brisnet.com, I made it through the first round, finishing 44th of roughly 300 entrants, before flattening out and finishing 168th of 300 finalists and missing out on the NHC finals.

This Saturday, Television Games Network is hosting an online qualifier that will send the Top 5 finishers to Vegas to represent TVG. The format is the same as that at the National Handicapping Championship, and it is all about finding winners at a value. For each designated race, each contestant will place a $2 win/place wager. The top 5 money-winners advance to the finals, with one caveat - win payoffs are capped at $40, place payoffs at $20, a measure designed to keep one-hit wonders from playing bombs all day and getting one home at an insane price.

The key to scoring big in tournament play is understanding that playing nothing but chalk is a losing proposition. The target per-race dollar figure to win a tournament is $20, and you simply can't get there playing chalk. The 7th race at Calder today provides a perfect example as to why.

A five furlong sprint on the grass for lower level claimers, by definition it wasn't the type of race that would present an unassailable favorite. As it turns out, Lox and Kippers made the lead as the 1.70-to-1 favorite and held off a rallying 47-1 flyer, So Savvy. Per tournament rules, the winning favorite paid the combined win/place payouts, which totaled $9.00. The lightly regarded So Savvy paid $24.60 to place. Truncated to the max payout, tournament players who backed the 47-1 shot collected $20, which just happens to be our per race target.

So what is the lesson here? It is that in tournament play, you must analyze the race to first determine NOT who is most likely to win, but who the betting public is most likely to back as the most likely to win. Once you have peeled back that onion, you must decide whether you agree and set a base line that you will not go below. If, however, you disagree, or if you suspect your first choice will be bet down below your basement value, the entire race opens up and you have to determine the longest shot who is most likely to generate a payout. It isn't easy.

Let's say your stand out top choice will likely go off at 3/2. Too low. Many veteran tournament players refuse to play any horse below 5/1. I'm not sure I'm that absolute about it...but I haven't qualified for the NHC yet, so maybe I should be. Okay, your most likely choice to upset the race is a morning line 6/1, and you suspect he will go off around that. Contrast that with a 20/1 who has one angle...dirt-to-turf, stretch out, 2nd off layoff...that really stands out and merits consideration as a possible bomb. Who do you play?

To be honest, I'm not sure if I've figured that out yet. We will find out on Saturday, as I take another shot at the NHC and put my picks on here for my adoring public to see.

Scratching out of this week's race

Although I hate to interrupt a hot streak like the one we're on, Mrs. Frugal Capper is scheduled to give birth to our first child this weekend. There aren't too many things I'd rather do than play the horses...this is one of them.

Wager wisely and we'll get back to the track next week.

One Bright Spot

One, infinitesimal, bright spot, from yesterday's Mrs. Revere is how we structured the bottom half of our super wheel. The 11-13-4 ran 3rd-4th-5th, at odds of 9/1, 9/2 and 78/1, and separated by only a length. That's the bright spot.

The rest of the race was pretty ugly. I thought that Bit of Whimsy was a deserving but beatable favorite -- she wasn't. I thought that despite Tensas Yucatan's step up in class, her frontrunning style would ensure a good trip and get her to the wire at a price. As it turns out, she backed up the moment she got eyeballed, fading all the way to 10th in the 11-horse field. We'll take minor consolation in the fact she was bet down from 15/1 to 15/2...we obviously weren't the only ones who bought into her.

The real puzzle is why Bel Air Beauty came up empty. She was a little closer to the pace than anticipated, which should have translated into first run on the tiring leaders and at least a brief lead before being overtaken late. That didn't happen, not even close. She didn't have running room late, but had she ran her race she would have clear of any traffic trouble and under the whip to hold off Bit of Whimsy and Ciao.

That's enough dissecting that race, we missed it big. On a positive note, the Frugal Capper and the Sire teamed up to hit 5 of 6 at Hollywood's Pick 6 carryover, a bittersweet ticket that paid $670...6 of 6 paid $210,000.

Like any good punter, I can't wait for the next race.

YTD Investment - $38
YTD Return - ($38)

Half Right, All the Way Wrong

We got the pace scenario right, with the 1 actually out front in :47.99...and then we went backwards. I didn't get a chance to watch the race, so I'll watch the replay tonight and autopsy the debacle.

Coming Home in the Mrs. Revere

At the top of the stretch, Tensas Yucatan (#1) will have moved up the rail to make the lead, with Gotta Have Her (#9) digging in and a handful of late runners either already in mid-move or ready to unwind for the stretch run.

At this point, trip and traffic will be key factors. As has been the case in recent outings, Costume (#13) looks to be hung wide throughout. Touch My Soul, Bit of Whimsy and Bel Air Beauty (2-3-6) stand to get much better trips stalking the early speed and saving ground. Of those three, Bel Air Beauty's running line since moving to turf stands out, with Beyers of 76-86-94. A continuation of that trend will be enough to put her on top. Anything less, and Tensas Yucatan has just enough left to hold on for the win at a price as she moves up in class.

One late note: the 7-12-14 are scratched. While the 12-14 didn't loom a factor at all, the absence of the 7 increases the prospects of the 1 getting a softer pace up front. Let's hope that's enough for her to hold off the 6 moving up quickly on her outside as she upsets the Mrs. Revere at a juicy price.

The play:

$10 win on Tensas Yucatan (#1)
$2 Exacta box 1-6 ($4)
$.10 super wheel 1-6/1-6/2-3-4-11-13/2-3-4-11-13 ($4)

Total investment: $18

Mrs. Revere Pace Scenario

The first 1/2 mile of the Mrs. Revere looks fairly easy to decipher. Three fillies, #s 1-7-9 will bolt to the front, although it looks like only the 9 will have any interest in heating up the early fractions. Of those three, the 1 (Tensas Yucatan) looks most likely to stick around and be a factor at the wire.

She's facing a bit tougher field than she is used to, but you simply can't ignore her turf form. She is 2 for 2 on the green, her last out a wire-to-wire win at this distance where she appeared to have plenty left down the stretch. She's from a barn hitting 28% on the turf, and the Albarado/Nicks combo has hit an unbelievable 6 of 9 when they pair up.

Tensas Yucatan will get a rail-skimming trip on a lead that should set moderate fractions, and her last work on 11/4 indicates she likes the Churchill Downs course.

At the 1/2 mile call, I see the 9 (Gotta Have Her) our front in :47, with the 1 sitting just inside her with plenty of run left and the 7 (Dashes N Dots) contesting the pace in the 3 path. The class of the field, the 2-3-6-13, will be spread out a few lengths back gearing up for a drive to the wire once they hit the top of the stretch.

Tomorrow, we'll figure out whether Tensas Yucatan can stay all the way to the wire. If she goes off anywhere near her M/L odds of 15-1, I will have an interest in her doing so.

Pick Your Wagering Variables Wisely

Saturday's weather forecast at Aqueduct gives us an opportunity to talk a little about which variables are worth wagering on, and which ones are not.

Weather is an element to be factored into your handicapping, not the basis for making your plays. As it stands now, my first look at the Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct starts with the question of whether it will stay on the turf, or be moved to the main (dirt) track. If it stays on the turf, how much will the rain affect the course? If it moves to the dirt, how many in the field of 12 will scratch out, and how many move up from the change in surface? For me, that is too many variables to consider before trying to structure the pace scenario. Handicapping is about eliminating, or at least minimizing, the variables in your data set.

Until we know for sure what the conditions will be in the Red Smith, I won't even begin dissecting that race. If you just can't help yourself and have to take a look, you can get the past performance here: Red Smith PP. If you have to play it, I'd suggest capping it under the assumption it will be moved to the main track.

In a little while, I'll post my first look at the Mrs. Revere pace scenario.

The Mrs. Revere Field

The Mrs. Revere has drawn a full field of 14, which means plenty of wagering propositions for the Frugal Capper on Saturday. A quick check of the weather forecast indicates the course should come up good, so we'll plan on getting an honest pace scenario. Once the past performances are posted on the Race of the Week, we'll dig into all the delicious details and see what Mrs. Revere has in store for us.

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

Post #	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Claim Price	Equip.	Med.
1	Tensas Yucatan	Albarado R J	117			L
2	Touch My Soul (FR)	Douglas R R	121			LA
3	Bit of Whimsy	Castellano J J	123			LA
4	Long Approach	Bridgmohan S X	117			L
5	Kiss With a Twist	Woods C R Jr	117			LA
6	Bel Air Beauty	Guidry M	121			LA
7	Dashes N Dots	Mena M	117			LA
8	Ciao	Desormeaux K J	117			L
9	Gotta Have Her	Migliore R	117			L
10	Lisa M	Borel C H	117			L
11	Cat Charmer	Leparoux J R	117			LA
12	Katerbug	Hernandez B J Jr	117			LA
13	Costume (GB)	Bejarano R	117			LA
14	Bicoastal	Melancon L	117			L

Mrs. Revere or Red Smith?

That will be the question we tackle this weekend as we take a look at the two races of the week. Both are Grade IIs on the grass, so we'll have to keep a close eye on the weather.

The Mrs. Revere is 1 1/16 miles for 3yo fillies at Churchill; the Red Smith is 1 3/8 miles for older males (3yo and up) at Aqueduct. The Mrs. Revere, at 2.5 furlongs shorter, could see a winner come from on the lead, especially if the footing comes up a little soft. At 11 furlongs, the Red Smith will almost surely be won from off the pace...determining how hot that pace projects will go a long way towards deciphering who navigates the traffic and hits the wire on top.

Once the entries and post positions are finalized, we'll do a first run through each field and take our first look at Saturday's weather forecast.

The difference between handicapping and wagering

The difference is pretty clear cut - handicapping is graded on a curve, wagering is pass/fail.

The chart from the Ack Ack chart shows that we handicapped the race well on several counts:

1. Sun King was a play against on top - check
2. Istan was the biggest threat to win - check
3. The early speed would get cooked - check (check out that 2nd 1/4 fraction of 22.44, that is a bullet...credit goes to Spotsgone for contesting those early fractions and sticking around for a piece of the super)
4. Ryan's for Real provided some value on the bottom of the tri/super tickets, as expected.
5. Simon Pure let the early speed clear and got the rail-skimming trip we hoped for.

Unfortunately, parimutuel pools don't factor in a narrative, they only pay off for outcomes. So despite nailing the pace scenario, correctly taking a stand against the morning line and betting favorite AND getting a 37-1 bomb on the ticket, we came up empty because Simon Pure didn't fire.

This is a prime example of why I wanted to limit the bankroll to $20. It forced me to either key the #5, Istan, knowing there would be minimal value, or trust the course & distance angle for Simon Pure. I chose the latter angle, and came up empty.

Week 1 total - ($20)

Running total - ($20)

The Ack Ack Handicap

The boys will be going a mile over the main track at Churchill in this Grade 3 event. Sun King, the morning line 9/5 favorite, comes in with a 10-race losing streak, albeit against primarily Grade 1 company. While he has hit the board 5 of 6 times at this distance, he's 0 for 2 at Churchill. He's giving 3-7 pounds to the rest of the field and that, coupled with his tendency to hang a little in deep stretch, makes him a play against on top.

Simon Pure has hit the board 5 of 5 at Churchill, 5 of 5 at this distance, and his last time under the spires he won handily at 7 furlongs. With early speed to his left, he should get a dream trip hugging the rail and have first run at the speed at the top of the stretch.

He'll have to hold off Istan, who returns to his preferred surface after a poor outing on the grass last out.

Throng enters off a brief freshening. He's filled out the exacta 4 of 6 times at a mile, with a career best Beyer coming at a mile under the Twin Spires a year ago. This Pletcher-trained colt should round out the superfecta at a price.

Off Duty will have trouble stretching out, Casino Evil gets cooked by the huge step up in class.

Spotsgone has hit as a bomb at this level before, but likely gets used up with the early speed.

Ryan's For Real enters for a barn hitting at 30% stretching out and 23% second off the layoff. His late-running style fits this pace scenario, and he stands a good chance to pick up a few pieces at an attractive price.

The play:

$.10 super wheel - 3 first & second w/1,5,7,8 ($4.80)
$.10 super wheel - 3,5/3,5/1,7,8/1,7,8 ($1.20)
$.10 super wheel - 8 second & third w/3,5,1,7 ($4.80)
$5 win - #3
$1 tri wheel - 3 first & second w/5,8 ($4.00)

The play is that it runs 3-5-8-(1/7), with a few hedges thrown in to allow for a slight deviation.

Here we go

We'll get to this week's races in moment. First, let me clarify what I'm doing and why.

I've been an avid handicapper for 7 years now, the first 5 of which could diplomatically be classified as a learning experience. I was horrible -- no clue how to read a past performance and a less-than-limited understanding of parimutuel wagering. The last couple years I've put that 'learning' to adequate use. Now, I'm either going to generate professional level returns, or I'm going to find out what I still need to learn.

The $20 threshold was selected for two reasons: 1) my wife won't bat an eye at the amount, and 2) it will force me to take a very narrow stand on each race.

Each week I will make only vertical, or single race, wagers. Horizontal, or multi-race, wagers...Pick 3s, 4s & 6s...offer the potential for much greater payoffs and a greater likelihood of earning 3:1 over the long-term. While I will continue to make those plays offline, that's not what we're after here. We are going to drill deep into 1 or 2 races per week and find out how accurately we can handicap a race.

Now, onto the races.

Here's how this works

Every week, the Daily Racing Form publishes two "Races of the Week", where they provide free past performances and a handicapper's analysis. I've included a link that will take you there.

Each week, my goal is the same: capping my bankroll at $20, I'm going to handicap and play only these two races with a target return of 3:1. I will keep a running tally of, and commentary on, how I'm doing.

I invite you to do the same (and click on a link or two while you're here!).