Year End Tally (maybe)

I'm not really sure what this week will bring, so it is 3/1 against me playing anything next weekend. Assuming I don't outrun my odds, here is my year end tally.

Invested $112.80
Returned $330.40
ROI 2.9:1

We've learned a few things about how to translate good handicapping into good wagering, we've taken a couple bad beats, and we've made a couple abysmal plays. When we started out, our stated goal was an ROI of 3:1 - we are hovering right around it.

Be safe and have a very happy holiday season.

Happy Holidays

That is a couple minutes I'll never get back. With that piss poor play, the Frugal Capper is licking his wounds and turning his attention to Christmas.

Bombs away

When Frankel + leading jockey at current meet + pace scenario + work tab = 12/1, the Frugal Capper will be all over it every time.

I expect Shore Do to get bet down somewhat, but he's still a juicy overlay at 8/1, and our holiday hopes rest on him driving through midtrack to take the CashCall Futurity.

The play:

$.10 super 9/1-2-10/1-2-10/1-2-3-5-8-10-12 ($3)
$.10 super 9/1-2-10/1-2-3-5-8-10-12/1-2-10 ($3)
$.10 super 2-9/2-9/1-3-5-8-10-12/1-3-5-8-10-12 ($6)
$1 Exacta key 9/1-2
$1 Tri key 9/1-2-10

Total investment $20

All I want for Christmas

Is to nail a dime super with a bomb on top. The CashCall Futurity (GI) might give us that opportunity.

Massive Drama (#2) and Colonel John (#8) enter with most of the attention, with Colonel John given the slight edge as the 5/2 morning line choice. Both are lightly raced, and and both own impressive last out wins over the Hollywood Cushion Track. The Colonel gets the morning line nod because his win was at this distance, while Drama is stretching out for his first try at two turns. They are deserving of the accolades and should go off as the top two choices.

We will try to beat them.

Massive Drama has plenty of speed drawn outside him. In his first two starts, he has gunned to the front. He'll have to do that today to avoid being bottled up into the first turn, and he'll be pressed from the inside as well.

Sierra Sunset (#1) has shown he'll press the pace, contesting quick fractions (:22 1/5, :46 1/5) in his first try at two turns, a win in the Cal Cup Juvenile on November 3rd. His work tab since that effort has been sharp. If you're willing to forgive his only Hollywood try on July 4th (38 Beyer), you'll get a Russell Baze piloted winner at two turns at very tasty odds.

Others that will be on the engine early are Eaton's Gift (#4) a recent allowance winner trying graded stakes company for the first time; (#7) Tres Borrachos, a maiden graduate taking a huge step up in his 4th start; and (#12) Into Mischief, a Harlan's Holiday colt who should like the added distance.

Of the early speed, we expect Sunset, Drama and Mischief to be around late.

Joining them when the real running begins at the top of the stretch will be (#11) Old Man Buck, a grinder who seems to prefer the turf, (#10) Monba, a Pletcher trainee who gets Gomez aboard for his stakes debut, and (#9) Shore Do, who takes the blinkers off in his first start since moving to Bobby Frankel's barn. (#3) Overextended will be winding up his late run, but won't join the leaders until the very end, if at all.

I've said before that the pace scenario always forms the basis for my play. The hot pace shapes up perfectly for Shore Do's late midtrack move. Frankel is hitting with 22% overall, and 25% off a short (31-60 day) layoff. Lastly, I'm a big fan of the blowout move/maintenance move work tab going into a stakes race, and Shore Do shows that.

We said were looking for a dime super with a bomb on top. I think we have it with 12/1 morning line Shore Do. The others in the mix include Sierra Sunset (who stands a good chance to hit the exacta), Massive Drama, Monba, Old Man Buck, Overextended and Into Mischief.

I'll spend a little more time structuring my ticket, then I'll be back shortly with this week's plays.

Quick bookkeeping update

In my disgust last week, I forgot to update my running tally. Here it is, with the expectation we'll add to our returns later today.

Invested - $92.80
Returned - $330.40
ROI - 3.6:1

Ouch

Bad beats hurt. Bad handicapping decisions hurt. We had both on Saturday.

Redaspen was wheeling back in two weeks to stretch out from 9 to 12 furlongs. We knew she'd give an honest effort, we didn't think it would be enough to win, and we had multiple plays with her in 2nd and 3rd. She won, impressively.

We thought My Rachel would back up after leading. She did. We thought she'd back up off the ticket. We were wrong, she held off our 3rd choice, Herboriste, for 4th.

If we get a break on either end of the ticket, we cash. Get breaks on both ends and we're cashing 3 tickets.

Ouch.

The La Prevoyante Handicap

It is back to the site of our last score, the turf course at Calder for the La Prevoyante Handicap (GII), a 1 1/2 marathon for older fillies and mares. This field of 12 presents plenty of value for exotic players and those who prefer playing the WPS parimutuels.

Dalvina enters off a win at this distance last out, bringing the top last out Beyer with her (100). In that race, the Long Island Handicap (GIII), she was well back early before launching an extended midtrack move and running off with a 3 1/2 length win. She is the deserving favorite today, although I expect her to be sent off much lower than her 3/1 morning line. She'll figure prominently in our play.

Here's a quick look at the field.

#1 Oh Deanne O (15/1)- She will be on the lead for a while, but not when it counts. There are too many late movers in here for her to win this marathon from the front, and likely too many for her to hold on for a piece of the exotics.

#2 My Rachel (5/1) - She was swallowed up by Dalvina when they hooked up in the Long Island Handicap. In that one, she drew off to a 6 length lead before backing up and holding onto the show. She will be swallowed up by several today. We'll be playing against the morning line 3rd choice.

#3 Green Girl (FR) (4/1) - Another who enters out of the Long Island, she has also taken on Breeders Cup Champion English Channel and Canadian Horse of the Year Sealy Hill since crossing the Atlantic from France. She's yet to hit the board this year facing that company. She should find the going much easier here and will be one we expect to be a factor at the end.

#4 Jive (20/1) - 2 of 11 lifetime on turf, career best Beyer of 80 and making her stakes debut. A smart play if you need some losers to zero out a tax ticket. Otherwise, look elsewhere.

#5 Dalvina (3/1) - The class of this field, she will grind her way to the front. Whether she stays there is the question. I think she gets nabbed at the wire, but we'll have several plays on either side of that coin.

#6 Redaspen (12/1) - A grinder that we pegged in the My Charmer Handicap (GIII)super two weeks ago, she hasn't been off the board in 5 starts this year against slightly lesser company. Wheeling back that quickly to go 3 furlongs more against better is a stiff challenge. Expect another honest effort, just don't expect her to fire fresh. She will factor on the bottom of our exotics.

#7 Eres Magica (CHI) (6/1) - Mercurial filly is 2 of 2 in the exacta at this distance and enters off an 8 week layoff. She has run well fresh, but her speed figures seem a notch below the best in this field.

#8 Herboriste (GB) (12/1) - Her Beyers have ticked upwards as the distances have increased, and she has won both starts at 1 1/2 miles. She gets top rider Manoel Cruz aboard today, and she will need a smart ride to overcome big class jump she'll be making. The play here is that she'll be forwardly placed, make a middle move to snare the lead at the top of the stretch and be all out to hold on.

#9 Suaveness (20/1) - 0 for 3 on turf, having backed up at much shorter. Have to question what she is doing in this spot.

#10 I'm In Love (8/1) - A hard fought placing two back against Criminologist and Dance Away Capote was followed by a respectable 2nd on the Poly at Woodbine. She returns to the green, where she is in the tri 7 of 14 lifetime, and stretches out to a mile and a half for the first time. She will be moving the best late, and she gets Elvis Trujillo aboard, who has hit an amazing 8 of 13 for Kieran McLaughlin in 2006-07, and 3 of 4 at Calder. Another who stands a chance to hit the wire first for a nice price.

#11 Sans Souci Island (10/1) - Another who enters off the layoff, this filly is not afraid to mix it up, splitting foes to win in her first two starts. Her Beyers are trending in the right direction, and she posted a career top last out in her first try against stakes company. She will be flying late if she gets a running lane and stands to get a piece of the exotic.

#12 Indiansong (20/1) - Her graded stakes debut won't be a memorable one. Pass.

The play, with a lesson learned last week and a little more hedging than normal:

$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/3-5-8/3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8/3-5-8/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super key 5/3-6-8-10 ($2.40)
$.10 super box 3-5-6-8 ($2.40)
$.10 super wheel 3-5/3-5/6-8-10/6-8-10 ($1.20)

Total Investment $20.40 (slightly above our cap of $20, a nod to the value in this race)

A Rookie Mistake

I mentioned yesterday that after further review, we simply got beat in the Native Diver Handicap (GIII)...that's not entirely true. We made a $16.80 mistake that cost us $873.56, or an ROI of 52:1.

With the advent of dime supers, superfectas with a base bet of $.10 instead of the traditional $1.00 base, it is careless to have strong opinions about 3 horses and not wheel them around a super ticket. Unfortunately, that is exactly what we did on Saturday.

We felt strongly that Ravel (#1) was the class of the field. He ran a somewhat troubled 4th. We believed Racketeer (#8) was the only one in the field that could run down Ravel. He ran a solid 2nd. Lastly, we said that IF Isipingo (#5) ran to his turf form, he would be a factor late. He closed for 3rd. Had we played a straight tri ticket, it would have been 1-8-5 for a $2 minimum. Boxing those three would give us 6 combinations, for $6.

A dime super, however, would have given us 168 options AND given us a lot more exposure to the derivative outcomes of a 1-8-5 play. In layman's terms, we would have cashed a ticket. The Native Diver was a 10-horse field - wheeling the remaining 7 entries in all 4 slots in the super would have given us the following combinations, the last of which would have delivered the winning play at 52:1 ROI.

3x2x1x7 = $4.20
3x2x7x1 = $4.20
3x7x2x1 = $4.20
7x3x2x1 = $4.20

By comparison, wheeling the field around our three selections in a $1 trifecta play would have given us these combinations:

3x2x7 = $42
3x7x2 = $42
7x3x2 = $42

Again, the last combination delivered the winning play, at an ROI of 21:1.

Clearly, the dime super is a frugal capper's dream play. In the Native Diver, based on the same handicapping selections, it provided an ROI 2.5x higher than a $1 tri wheel, at an investment level 7.5x lower.

Although Saturday wasn't a winning day, it provided a very valuable wagering lesson. We'll see if we can put it into play soon.

After Further Review...

We simply got beat. I've watched the replay of the Native Diver Handicap a half dozen times, thinking I'd catch something that would explain Heatseeker's 30/1 upset, and I still haven't found it.

He got a great ride from Michael Baze, saving ground early then circling 4-wide and hammering down the middle of the track for a handy 1 1/4 length win.

Ravel never appeared comfortable, tugging Garrett Gomez early, then getting stuck behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch. By the time Go Go wheeled him into the 4-path, Ravel was spent and passed only the tiring early pacesetters. Had Gomez let him run up front early, it could be argued that he is classy enough to put away the early speed and hold off the late runners. While I would make that argument, that a better ride would have landed him no worse than 2nd, it wouldn't have done us any good at the teller's window.

We got beat by a 30/1 bomb, who we dismissed simply as "a little short to get this 9 furlong trip". It happens, it's racing.

Our tally to date:

Invested $72.40
Returned $330.40
ROI 4.6:1

Fair Grounds postmortem

We can only hope our play in the Native Diver Handicap (GIII) is anywhere near as accurate as our nonplay in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic.

Costa Rising was sent off as the overlaid 2/5 favorite. Seriously, he could have been sent at 1/9 and still have been underbet. We said he would make the lead - he did, by a length at the 1/4 call. We said his only pace pressure would be Southern Invasion - he was, running 2nd for 3/4s before fading to last. We said the only closer was Hallway, and he wouldn't get close - he was, and he didn't. And we said Costa Rising would win by daylight, with little urging - he did, drawing away for a 15+ length win under a hand ride.

He paid $2.80 to win, a tick above our $2.40 projection. The $2 exacta paid $9.20...or $4.60 on the dollar. Had we played the tri, with Costa on top, Hallway in second and wheeled the remainder on the bottom, our $3 play would have paid $21.30, or a staggering 7-to-1.

We'll keep an eye on the Fair Grounds now that we have a race under our belts. If only they were all that easy.

Native Diver Handicap

The Native Diver Handicap (GIII) is Ravel's (#1) race. He is a class above these, so much so that 10 months ago, prior to a leg injury that knocked him off the Derby trail, he was the wiseguy choice to win the Kentucky Derby. This son of Fusaichi Pegasus, out of Let (A.P. Indy), was bred to be that good and hasn't disappointed when he has made it to the starting gate.

This is his first graded stakes attempt against older males. That does nothing to dissuade me from keying him at the top, however, it just gives me hope that we'll get a little better value on him.

Underneath him, there are several question marks.

(#2) Hello Sunday showed a nice turn of foot in his last out to close into 3rd at this distance against a similar crowd. That same effort today should land similar results.

(#3) Arson Squad hasn't fired on synthetic yet, finishing no better than 4th in 3 tries, albeit against GI/GII company. He has plenty of raw speed, or at least had plenty before being gelded this spring. It is hard to tell whether he is running on empty, so to speak, or just hasn't taken to the man-made tracks.

(#4) Buzzard's Bay has won 2 of his last 4, all as the betting favorite. His two losses were dull efforts, beating only a combined 3 of 16 horses in finishing 7th and 8th. We are counting on another flat outing today.

(#5) Isipingo is 8 of 10 in the money lifetime, with all 10 starts on the grass. If his pace-stalking style translates to the Cushion Track, expect him to be a factor late.

(#6) Wanna Runner and (#7) Masterpiece will go as far as their speed will take them, which in this 1 1/8 mile event won't be enough.

(#8) Racketeer rallied late to win a stout Allowance route on this track in his last outing...on May 26th. The Frankel barn is hitting 27% off the layoff, and this Awesome Again colt has run well fresh. If any of these stands to get Ravel at the wire, it will be this one.

(#9) Heatseeker appears to be a little short to get this 9 furlong trip.

(#10) Bold Chieftain has yet to turn in a clunker, and he is 2 of 2 in the exacta on synthetic surfaces. His best likely isn't good enough to best the field, though, and the wide draw compromises his chances of saving ground into the first turn. He does get record-setting pilot Russell Baze, so we can expect his best.

We are going to play against Buzzards Bay, with only an $.80 hedge play in case he fires. If straight win bets are your play, take no less than 2/1 on Ravel and 4/1 on Racketeer. If Isipingo stays at or above his 15/1 morning line, that might be worth a play as well.

The Frugal Capper play:

$.10 super 1-8/1-8/2-3-5-10/2-3-5-10 ($2.40)
$.10 super 1/2-3-5-10/8/2-3-5-10 ($1.20)
$.10 super 4-8/1/4-8/2-3-5-10 ($.80)
$1 tri wheel 1/8/2-3-5-10 ($4)
$4 exacta 1-8
$2 exacta 8-1

Total play = $14.40

Go With What You Know

I don't know the Fair Grounds. I don't recall ever making a play there, nor have I ever handicapped a race at that track. That was clearly evident as I made my first trip through the Louisiana Champions Day past performances.

Costa Rising, last year's winner of this event, enters the race as the morning line choice, at a very generous 9/5. He should go off at 1/9. He turned back Southern Invasion, the only pace pressure he'll face, in their last meeting. The only runner with any late kick, Hallway, boasts (admits?) a career best Beyer of 84, a figure well below Costa's worst outing on dirt over the past year. Costa drew the rail, where he will naturally make the lead. He will win, by daylight, with little urging. He will pay $2.40 to win. The exacta will be $4.60, the tri about $14. That's how I see this race shaping up. Either it really is that easy, and we can make $.20 on the dollar, or I'm missing the idiosyncrasies that make this a more evenly matched heat. I'm not willing to spend any money to find out, which means we are headed to Hollywood Park for our play.

Stacking Some Cold Hard Today!

Just like we hoped, we flat nailed the My Charmer Handicap and hit the trifecta twice, walking away from the window with $330.40.

A quick recap of the race:
As expected, Bayou's Lassie jumped to the lead and only gave it up late, and grudgingly, holding on for her 2nd straight place finish in this race. She wasn't pressed as much as we expected, setting soft fractions of :24.07 and :48.87, which makes J'ray's win (and ours!) even more impressive.

J'ray got a great ride from Manoel Cruz, who quickly sensed the slow pace and placed her a little closer to the lead than is her norm, settling in comfortably 4 wide and waiting her turn. As we flat out nailed this morning, when the field bunched at the top of the stretch, J'ray circled them all and tracked down Bayou's Lassie in the middle of the track, gutting out a 3/4 length win.

Lastly, Redaspen, our 12/1 value play on the bottom of the trifecta lurked in 7th early, was 6th as the field turned for home, then got clean running room and gobbled up ground enough to take 3rd.

The one surprise is the flat outing from La Dolce Vita, who raced last early and passed only the tiring early speedsters to finish a dull 6th.

The tally thus far is a helluva lot better than you'll get on Wall St. right now, and a helluva lot more fun too.

Invested - $58
Returned - $330.40
ROI - 5.7 to 1

*Bonus Win* - We opted not to play the Bayakoa because, as quoted here yesterday, it looked "like a $9.40 Exacta"...it paid $9.20.

The My Charmer Handicap

It's a horses for courses day at Frugal Capper HQ, with that angle looming large in our play in the My Charmer Handicap, a Grade III for older fillies and mares over the Turf Course at Calder.

Look for the 8 (Bayou's Lassie) and the 10 (Annabill) to jump on top early and duel each other through a relatively quick first 1/2 mile, with the 7 involved up front as well. I'm expecting a :23.5 quarter and a :47.2 half mile, with the field bunching up at the top of the turn.

At that point, J'ray (#11) will start circling the field and gearing up for her mad dash down the middle of the track. She's been in the exacta 2-of-2 at Calder, and we are looking for her to get up just in time today. She'll be fending off La Dolce Vita, who enters off slight freshening and has run well off the layoff at this distance in the past (93 Beyer in a $100K Optional Claimer in January). They will both be reeling in Bayou's Lassie, who has won 4 of her 5 starts at Calder, her only defeat coming by a length in last year's running of the My Charmer.

To fill out our trifecta we'll add a couple grinders whose style fits the pace scenario and need only a clean trip to pick up a piece of this race. Cozzi Capital is a steadily improving 3 year old who has hit the tote board 7-of-7 lifetime at Calder, winning her only start at today's distance two back. Running back to that effort today may be just enough to get her on our trifecta ticket. Redaspen is another who looks to close into the trifecta.

The pick to win is J'ray (#11). If that is your preferred play, don't take any less than the 3/1 morning line on her.

Our exotic plays are as follows, let's hope we nailed it and can walk to the window to cash multiple tickets:

$1 tri wheel - 11/2-8/2-3-4-7-8-10 ($10)
$1 tri key - 11/2-8 ($2)
$1 tri key - 2-8/11/3-4 ($4)
$1 tri key - 11/2-8/3-4 ($4)

Tota play = $20