Go With What You Know

I don't know the Fair Grounds. I don't recall ever making a play there, nor have I ever handicapped a race at that track. That was clearly evident as I made my first trip through the Louisiana Champions Day past performances.

Costa Rising, last year's winner of this event, enters the race as the morning line choice, at a very generous 9/5. He should go off at 1/9. He turned back Southern Invasion, the only pace pressure he'll face, in their last meeting. The only runner with any late kick, Hallway, boasts (admits?) a career best Beyer of 84, a figure well below Costa's worst outing on dirt over the past year. Costa drew the rail, where he will naturally make the lead. He will win, by daylight, with little urging. He will pay $2.40 to win. The exacta will be $4.60, the tri about $14. That's how I see this race shaping up. Either it really is that easy, and we can make $.20 on the dollar, or I'm missing the idiosyncrasies that make this a more evenly matched heat. I'm not willing to spend any money to find out, which means we are headed to Hollywood Park for our play.