Native Diver Handicap

The Native Diver Handicap (GIII) is Ravel's (#1) race. He is a class above these, so much so that 10 months ago, prior to a leg injury that knocked him off the Derby trail, he was the wiseguy choice to win the Kentucky Derby. This son of Fusaichi Pegasus, out of Let (A.P. Indy), was bred to be that good and hasn't disappointed when he has made it to the starting gate.

This is his first graded stakes attempt against older males. That does nothing to dissuade me from keying him at the top, however, it just gives me hope that we'll get a little better value on him.

Underneath him, there are several question marks.

(#2) Hello Sunday showed a nice turn of foot in his last out to close into 3rd at this distance against a similar crowd. That same effort today should land similar results.

(#3) Arson Squad hasn't fired on synthetic yet, finishing no better than 4th in 3 tries, albeit against GI/GII company. He has plenty of raw speed, or at least had plenty before being gelded this spring. It is hard to tell whether he is running on empty, so to speak, or just hasn't taken to the man-made tracks.

(#4) Buzzard's Bay has won 2 of his last 4, all as the betting favorite. His two losses were dull efforts, beating only a combined 3 of 16 horses in finishing 7th and 8th. We are counting on another flat outing today.

(#5) Isipingo is 8 of 10 in the money lifetime, with all 10 starts on the grass. If his pace-stalking style translates to the Cushion Track, expect him to be a factor late.

(#6) Wanna Runner and (#7) Masterpiece will go as far as their speed will take them, which in this 1 1/8 mile event won't be enough.

(#8) Racketeer rallied late to win a stout Allowance route on this track in his last outing...on May 26th. The Frankel barn is hitting 27% off the layoff, and this Awesome Again colt has run well fresh. If any of these stands to get Ravel at the wire, it will be this one.

(#9) Heatseeker appears to be a little short to get this 9 furlong trip.

(#10) Bold Chieftain has yet to turn in a clunker, and he is 2 of 2 in the exacta on synthetic surfaces. His best likely isn't good enough to best the field, though, and the wide draw compromises his chances of saving ground into the first turn. He does get record-setting pilot Russell Baze, so we can expect his best.

We are going to play against Buzzards Bay, with only an $.80 hedge play in case he fires. If straight win bets are your play, take no less than 2/1 on Ravel and 4/1 on Racketeer. If Isipingo stays at or above his 15/1 morning line, that might be worth a play as well.

The Frugal Capper play:

$.10 super 1-8/1-8/2-3-5-10/2-3-5-10 ($2.40)
$.10 super 1/2-3-5-10/8/2-3-5-10 ($1.20)
$.10 super 4-8/1/4-8/2-3-5-10 ($.80)
$1 tri wheel 1/8/2-3-5-10 ($4)
$4 exacta 1-8
$2 exacta 8-1

Total play = $14.40