Decisions, Decisions

After last week's nice bounce back at Hollywood, I was excited to see that the Bayakoa Handicap was one of our choices for Race of the Week. A Grade II for older fillies and mares, the Bayakoa is a 1 1/16th mile race over Hollywood's Cushion Track. That is right in our wheelhouse.

The downside of this race is the short field. With only seven entered, three of whom are GI winners, it will be hard to find a reasonable wagering proposition that offers any value. At first glance, this looks like a $9.40 Exacta, $21.60 Trifecta type race. If that holds true, we'll have to nail the EX cold and only go three-deep in our TRI wager to get the kind of ROI we're looking for.

By contrast, our other Race of the Week choice boasts a more evenly matched field of 11 older fillies and mares. The My Charmer Handicap is a Grade III race going 1 1/8th miles over the turf course at Calder. Three of these entries have a clearly established pattern of making or pressing the lead, a strong indication we'll get an honest pace scenario up front.

So do we go with one of our most profitable tracks and take lesser value, or bite off a juicy, closely matched turf race and try to make a big hit?

I'll pore it over and get back to you.

Hollywood, Hollywood, Finally up to some good

Somebody, please, explain to the Frugal Capper how we can pore over the data for four races at Aqueduct and return $ZERO on a mythical $16 investment, then head to Hollywood and do nothing but play bombs to get back into the mix and return $74 in 6 races. Please?

It took a return of $15.65 per race to win this qualifier. This handicapper returned roughly $12.35/race at Hollywood, enough to justify going back for tomorrow's guaranteed $1 million Pick 6.

Thankfully, the Big A is in our rear view mirror. I may box the field in an exacta tomorrow just to cash a ticket at that money pit.

The final tally - Frugal Capper finished tied for 286th of over 4,000 entrants. In college, that would have earned an A, about the 93rd percentile. That and a five spot will get me a latte at Starbucks.

On a very positive note, my Mounties played efficiently today and are 60 minutes from playing for the national championship.

Big Awful at the Big A

The dry spell at Aqueduct continues, as the Mushka circled the field at the top of the stretch and drove home to win the Demoisel.

My notes on Mushka: "right style, little value; play against"

Well, she was more valuable than our get-well play, who led through the early fractions (wish she'd been in the race before to post that :47.2 half mile) and got cooked late.

We'll go with one more bomb at Aqueduct, then head west to the cozy Cushion Track of Hollywood Park, where we've actually cashed some tickets and are in the black for the year.

Ofer Two

Well shit. The expected pace duel never developed, as Shopton Lane and Now a Victor led the field all the way around the track, with Victor overtaking Lane late and holding on for a solid win.

Our original choice, Dr V's Magic got stuck inside and had to alter course, ruining his chances of hitting the exacta. Our bomb made a strong late run for 4th, doing us no good whatsoever.

The soft first half mile (:49+) was too much to overcome for Notice Me Now. We were looking for something in the :46.5 range; had we gotten that from the two frontrunners, I feel pretty confident the 4 would have gotten up for the place and nice ticket.

We didn't get our pace, he didn't get his race, we're 0-for-2 and scrambling now.

Calculate Risk

The 2nd leg offers a chance to get healthy, with a sometimes-late-running 25-1 bomb sitting on a chance to pick up the pieces of an early pace duel. We're rolling the dice here and moving off our 5/1 pick, in the hopes the #4 can get up for the place and a higher gross payout.

We'll either be back to our original game plan or flying blind the rest of the way.

Change of plans

With first time starter Regal Prince reeling in our pick Lyke a Hurricane with a furlong to go, at 14/1, our trip to Vegas has already taken a detour. We'll need to get home a couple winners over the next two to chip away at that lead, otherwise it will be bombs away at Hollywood.

TVG/NHC Qualifier picks

With Aqueduct sufficiently handicapped and Hollywood still a ways off, here are my initial plays in the first four legs of the tournament.

1st leg (AQU #4) - a maiden special weight field of 12 going 6 furlongs kicks it off. My choice is #2, Lyke a Hurricane. Adding blinkers and 1st time Lasix, he will be sent to the front and lead them for as long as they let him. The hope here is he is out front every call and gets to the wire at somewhere close to his 6/1 morning line. My basement on him is 4/1, meaning if he drops below that I will look elsewhere for comparable value, possibly the #10, Lee Stewart, who's barn is hitting at 41% in their 2nd start. He's at 12/1 morning line, and I expect that to jump above 20/1 by post time. The other possible value play is the #1, Raffie's Deer, who has put forth winning efforts in 3 of his last 4 but hasn't broken through. He's 3/1 on the morning line; if that drifts up to 6/1 or so, we'll take a long look at him.

2nd leg (AQU #5) - the Grade III Discovery Handicap, for 3 year olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Shopton Lane (#1) and Now a Victor (#7) will duel through early fractions and set up the late run of Helsinki (#3) and Dr. V's Magic (#5). Although Helsinki merits slight favoritism, I'm looking for a little Magic on the strength of his recent worktab, at a price likely more than double that of Helsinki.

3rd leg (AQU #6) - the Grade II Demoisel, 2 year old fillies stretching out to 1 1/8 miles on the main track. There will be plenty of early speed to set the fractions we need for Melissa Jo (#1) to parlay a rail-skimming trip into a monster move at the top of the turn and an impressive win. I doubt she'll go off at her m/l odds of 5/1, but anything above 3/1 is enough for me. If she is bet down below that, I'm rolling the dice that all the early speed will be cooked and Home Crowd, 2 of 2 in the exacta at the Big A, picks up most of the pieces at somewhere around 18-20/1.

I'll be back with any in-tournament changes, a leaderboard update (hopefully with Frugal at the top) and my Hollywood plays.

The TVG National Handicapping Championship lineup

The lineup is set for tomorrow, with 4 races from Aqueduct and 6 races from Hollywood Park. The Frugal Capper has had some success on the new Cushion Track at Hollywood, so I'm feeling pretty good about the last 6 races of the qualifier. I can't say the same about Aqueduct, however. It's been several weeks since I even played a race there, finally throwing in the towel after a severe cold spell at the Big A.

In a short while, I will provide a summary of the 10-race card and my first impression of how the races shape up.

Programming Alert

This week we are going to do something a little different. As most of you likely don't know, the National Handicapping Championship is held each January in Las Vegas. It has been the this handicapper's demi-decade long dream to qualify for this event.

In my most recent attempt, an online qualifier at brisnet.com, I made it through the first round, finishing 44th of roughly 300 entrants, before flattening out and finishing 168th of 300 finalists and missing out on the NHC finals.

This Saturday, Television Games Network is hosting an online qualifier that will send the Top 5 finishers to Vegas to represent TVG. The format is the same as that at the National Handicapping Championship, and it is all about finding winners at a value. For each designated race, each contestant will place a $2 win/place wager. The top 5 money-winners advance to the finals, with one caveat - win payoffs are capped at $40, place payoffs at $20, a measure designed to keep one-hit wonders from playing bombs all day and getting one home at an insane price.

The key to scoring big in tournament play is understanding that playing nothing but chalk is a losing proposition. The target per-race dollar figure to win a tournament is $20, and you simply can't get there playing chalk. The 7th race at Calder today provides a perfect example as to why.

A five furlong sprint on the grass for lower level claimers, by definition it wasn't the type of race that would present an unassailable favorite. As it turns out, Lox and Kippers made the lead as the 1.70-to-1 favorite and held off a rallying 47-1 flyer, So Savvy. Per tournament rules, the winning favorite paid the combined win/place payouts, which totaled $9.00. The lightly regarded So Savvy paid $24.60 to place. Truncated to the max payout, tournament players who backed the 47-1 shot collected $20, which just happens to be our per race target.

So what is the lesson here? It is that in tournament play, you must analyze the race to first determine NOT who is most likely to win, but who the betting public is most likely to back as the most likely to win. Once you have peeled back that onion, you must decide whether you agree and set a base line that you will not go below. If, however, you disagree, or if you suspect your first choice will be bet down below your basement value, the entire race opens up and you have to determine the longest shot who is most likely to generate a payout. It isn't easy.

Let's say your stand out top choice will likely go off at 3/2. Too low. Many veteran tournament players refuse to play any horse below 5/1. I'm not sure I'm that absolute about it...but I haven't qualified for the NHC yet, so maybe I should be. Okay, your most likely choice to upset the race is a morning line 6/1, and you suspect he will go off around that. Contrast that with a 20/1 who has one angle...dirt-to-turf, stretch out, 2nd off layoff...that really stands out and merits consideration as a possible bomb. Who do you play?

To be honest, I'm not sure if I've figured that out yet. We will find out on Saturday, as I take another shot at the NHC and put my picks on here for my adoring public to see.

Scratching out of this week's race

Although I hate to interrupt a hot streak like the one we're on, Mrs. Frugal Capper is scheduled to give birth to our first child this weekend. There aren't too many things I'd rather do than play the horses...this is one of them.

Wager wisely and we'll get back to the track next week.

One Bright Spot

One, infinitesimal, bright spot, from yesterday's Mrs. Revere is how we structured the bottom half of our super wheel. The 11-13-4 ran 3rd-4th-5th, at odds of 9/1, 9/2 and 78/1, and separated by only a length. That's the bright spot.

The rest of the race was pretty ugly. I thought that Bit of Whimsy was a deserving but beatable favorite -- she wasn't. I thought that despite Tensas Yucatan's step up in class, her frontrunning style would ensure a good trip and get her to the wire at a price. As it turns out, she backed up the moment she got eyeballed, fading all the way to 10th in the 11-horse field. We'll take minor consolation in the fact she was bet down from 15/1 to 15/2...we obviously weren't the only ones who bought into her.

The real puzzle is why Bel Air Beauty came up empty. She was a little closer to the pace than anticipated, which should have translated into first run on the tiring leaders and at least a brief lead before being overtaken late. That didn't happen, not even close. She didn't have running room late, but had she ran her race she would have clear of any traffic trouble and under the whip to hold off Bit of Whimsy and Ciao.

That's enough dissecting that race, we missed it big. On a positive note, the Frugal Capper and the Sire teamed up to hit 5 of 6 at Hollywood's Pick 6 carryover, a bittersweet ticket that paid $670...6 of 6 paid $210,000.

Like any good punter, I can't wait for the next race.

YTD Investment - $38
YTD Return - ($38)

Half Right, All the Way Wrong

We got the pace scenario right, with the 1 actually out front in :47.99...and then we went backwards. I didn't get a chance to watch the race, so I'll watch the replay tonight and autopsy the debacle.

Coming Home in the Mrs. Revere

At the top of the stretch, Tensas Yucatan (#1) will have moved up the rail to make the lead, with Gotta Have Her (#9) digging in and a handful of late runners either already in mid-move or ready to unwind for the stretch run.

At this point, trip and traffic will be key factors. As has been the case in recent outings, Costume (#13) looks to be hung wide throughout. Touch My Soul, Bit of Whimsy and Bel Air Beauty (2-3-6) stand to get much better trips stalking the early speed and saving ground. Of those three, Bel Air Beauty's running line since moving to turf stands out, with Beyers of 76-86-94. A continuation of that trend will be enough to put her on top. Anything less, and Tensas Yucatan has just enough left to hold on for the win at a price as she moves up in class.

One late note: the 7-12-14 are scratched. While the 12-14 didn't loom a factor at all, the absence of the 7 increases the prospects of the 1 getting a softer pace up front. Let's hope that's enough for her to hold off the 6 moving up quickly on her outside as she upsets the Mrs. Revere at a juicy price.

The play:

$10 win on Tensas Yucatan (#1)
$2 Exacta box 1-6 ($4)
$.10 super wheel 1-6/1-6/2-3-4-11-13/2-3-4-11-13 ($4)

Total investment: $18

Mrs. Revere Pace Scenario

The first 1/2 mile of the Mrs. Revere looks fairly easy to decipher. Three fillies, #s 1-7-9 will bolt to the front, although it looks like only the 9 will have any interest in heating up the early fractions. Of those three, the 1 (Tensas Yucatan) looks most likely to stick around and be a factor at the wire.

She's facing a bit tougher field than she is used to, but you simply can't ignore her turf form. She is 2 for 2 on the green, her last out a wire-to-wire win at this distance where she appeared to have plenty left down the stretch. She's from a barn hitting 28% on the turf, and the Albarado/Nicks combo has hit an unbelievable 6 of 9 when they pair up.

Tensas Yucatan will get a rail-skimming trip on a lead that should set moderate fractions, and her last work on 11/4 indicates she likes the Churchill Downs course.

At the 1/2 mile call, I see the 9 (Gotta Have Her) our front in :47, with the 1 sitting just inside her with plenty of run left and the 7 (Dashes N Dots) contesting the pace in the 3 path. The class of the field, the 2-3-6-13, will be spread out a few lengths back gearing up for a drive to the wire once they hit the top of the stretch.

Tomorrow, we'll figure out whether Tensas Yucatan can stay all the way to the wire. If she goes off anywhere near her M/L odds of 15-1, I will have an interest in her doing so.

Pick Your Wagering Variables Wisely

Saturday's weather forecast at Aqueduct gives us an opportunity to talk a little about which variables are worth wagering on, and which ones are not.

Weather is an element to be factored into your handicapping, not the basis for making your plays. As it stands now, my first look at the Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct starts with the question of whether it will stay on the turf, or be moved to the main (dirt) track. If it stays on the turf, how much will the rain affect the course? If it moves to the dirt, how many in the field of 12 will scratch out, and how many move up from the change in surface? For me, that is too many variables to consider before trying to structure the pace scenario. Handicapping is about eliminating, or at least minimizing, the variables in your data set.

Until we know for sure what the conditions will be in the Red Smith, I won't even begin dissecting that race. If you just can't help yourself and have to take a look, you can get the past performance here: Red Smith PP. If you have to play it, I'd suggest capping it under the assumption it will be moved to the main track.

In a little while, I'll post my first look at the Mrs. Revere pace scenario.

The Mrs. Revere Field

The Mrs. Revere has drawn a full field of 14, which means plenty of wagering propositions for the Frugal Capper on Saturday. A quick check of the weather forecast indicates the course should come up good, so we'll plan on getting an honest pace scenario. Once the past performances are posted on the Race of the Week, we'll dig into all the delicious details and see what Mrs. Revere has in store for us.

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

Post #	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Claim Price	Equip.	Med.
1	Tensas Yucatan	Albarado R J	117			L
2	Touch My Soul (FR)	Douglas R R	121			LA
3	Bit of Whimsy	Castellano J J	123			LA
4	Long Approach	Bridgmohan S X	117			L
5	Kiss With a Twist	Woods C R Jr	117			LA
6	Bel Air Beauty	Guidry M	121			LA
7	Dashes N Dots	Mena M	117			LA
8	Ciao	Desormeaux K J	117			L
9	Gotta Have Her	Migliore R	117			L
10	Lisa M	Borel C H	117			L
11	Cat Charmer	Leparoux J R	117			LA
12	Katerbug	Hernandez B J Jr	117			LA
13	Costume (GB)	Bejarano R	117			LA
14	Bicoastal	Melancon L	117			L

Mrs. Revere or Red Smith?

That will be the question we tackle this weekend as we take a look at the two races of the week. Both are Grade IIs on the grass, so we'll have to keep a close eye on the weather.

The Mrs. Revere is 1 1/16 miles for 3yo fillies at Churchill; the Red Smith is 1 3/8 miles for older males (3yo and up) at Aqueduct. The Mrs. Revere, at 2.5 furlongs shorter, could see a winner come from on the lead, especially if the footing comes up a little soft. At 11 furlongs, the Red Smith will almost surely be won from off the pace...determining how hot that pace projects will go a long way towards deciphering who navigates the traffic and hits the wire on top.

Once the entries and post positions are finalized, we'll do a first run through each field and take our first look at Saturday's weather forecast.

The difference between handicapping and wagering

The difference is pretty clear cut - handicapping is graded on a curve, wagering is pass/fail.

The chart from the Ack Ack chart shows that we handicapped the race well on several counts:

1. Sun King was a play against on top - check
2. Istan was the biggest threat to win - check
3. The early speed would get cooked - check (check out that 2nd 1/4 fraction of 22.44, that is a bullet...credit goes to Spotsgone for contesting those early fractions and sticking around for a piece of the super)
4. Ryan's for Real provided some value on the bottom of the tri/super tickets, as expected.
5. Simon Pure let the early speed clear and got the rail-skimming trip we hoped for.

Unfortunately, parimutuel pools don't factor in a narrative, they only pay off for outcomes. So despite nailing the pace scenario, correctly taking a stand against the morning line and betting favorite AND getting a 37-1 bomb on the ticket, we came up empty because Simon Pure didn't fire.

This is a prime example of why I wanted to limit the bankroll to $20. It forced me to either key the #5, Istan, knowing there would be minimal value, or trust the course & distance angle for Simon Pure. I chose the latter angle, and came up empty.

Week 1 total - ($20)

Running total - ($20)

The Ack Ack Handicap

The boys will be going a mile over the main track at Churchill in this Grade 3 event. Sun King, the morning line 9/5 favorite, comes in with a 10-race losing streak, albeit against primarily Grade 1 company. While he has hit the board 5 of 6 times at this distance, he's 0 for 2 at Churchill. He's giving 3-7 pounds to the rest of the field and that, coupled with his tendency to hang a little in deep stretch, makes him a play against on top.

Simon Pure has hit the board 5 of 5 at Churchill, 5 of 5 at this distance, and his last time under the spires he won handily at 7 furlongs. With early speed to his left, he should get a dream trip hugging the rail and have first run at the speed at the top of the stretch.

He'll have to hold off Istan, who returns to his preferred surface after a poor outing on the grass last out.

Throng enters off a brief freshening. He's filled out the exacta 4 of 6 times at a mile, with a career best Beyer coming at a mile under the Twin Spires a year ago. This Pletcher-trained colt should round out the superfecta at a price.

Off Duty will have trouble stretching out, Casino Evil gets cooked by the huge step up in class.

Spotsgone has hit as a bomb at this level before, but likely gets used up with the early speed.

Ryan's For Real enters for a barn hitting at 30% stretching out and 23% second off the layoff. His late-running style fits this pace scenario, and he stands a good chance to pick up a few pieces at an attractive price.

The play:

$.10 super wheel - 3 first & second w/1,5,7,8 ($4.80)
$.10 super wheel - 3,5/3,5/1,7,8/1,7,8 ($1.20)
$.10 super wheel - 8 second & third w/3,5,1,7 ($4.80)
$5 win - #3
$1 tri wheel - 3 first & second w/5,8 ($4.00)

The play is that it runs 3-5-8-(1/7), with a few hedges thrown in to allow for a slight deviation.

Here we go

We'll get to this week's races in moment. First, let me clarify what I'm doing and why.

I've been an avid handicapper for 7 years now, the first 5 of which could diplomatically be classified as a learning experience. I was horrible -- no clue how to read a past performance and a less-than-limited understanding of parimutuel wagering. The last couple years I've put that 'learning' to adequate use. Now, I'm either going to generate professional level returns, or I'm going to find out what I still need to learn.

The $20 threshold was selected for two reasons: 1) my wife won't bat an eye at the amount, and 2) it will force me to take a very narrow stand on each race.

Each week I will make only vertical, or single race, wagers. Horizontal, or multi-race, wagers...Pick 3s, 4s & 6s...offer the potential for much greater payoffs and a greater likelihood of earning 3:1 over the long-term. While I will continue to make those plays offline, that's not what we're after here. We are going to drill deep into 1 or 2 races per week and find out how accurately we can handicap a race.

Now, onto the races.