TVG/NHC Qualifier picks

With Aqueduct sufficiently handicapped and Hollywood still a ways off, here are my initial plays in the first four legs of the tournament.

1st leg (AQU #4) - a maiden special weight field of 12 going 6 furlongs kicks it off. My choice is #2, Lyke a Hurricane. Adding blinkers and 1st time Lasix, he will be sent to the front and lead them for as long as they let him. The hope here is he is out front every call and gets to the wire at somewhere close to his 6/1 morning line. My basement on him is 4/1, meaning if he drops below that I will look elsewhere for comparable value, possibly the #10, Lee Stewart, who's barn is hitting at 41% in their 2nd start. He's at 12/1 morning line, and I expect that to jump above 20/1 by post time. The other possible value play is the #1, Raffie's Deer, who has put forth winning efforts in 3 of his last 4 but hasn't broken through. He's 3/1 on the morning line; if that drifts up to 6/1 or so, we'll take a long look at him.

2nd leg (AQU #5) - the Grade III Discovery Handicap, for 3 year olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Shopton Lane (#1) and Now a Victor (#7) will duel through early fractions and set up the late run of Helsinki (#3) and Dr. V's Magic (#5). Although Helsinki merits slight favoritism, I'm looking for a little Magic on the strength of his recent worktab, at a price likely more than double that of Helsinki.

3rd leg (AQU #6) - the Grade II Demoisel, 2 year old fillies stretching out to 1 1/8 miles on the main track. There will be plenty of early speed to set the fractions we need for Melissa Jo (#1) to parlay a rail-skimming trip into a monster move at the top of the turn and an impressive win. I doubt she'll go off at her m/l odds of 5/1, but anything above 3/1 is enough for me. If she is bet down below that, I'm rolling the dice that all the early speed will be cooked and Home Crowd, 2 of 2 in the exacta at the Big A, picks up most of the pieces at somewhere around 18-20/1.

I'll be back with any in-tournament changes, a leaderboard update (hopefully with Frugal at the top) and my Hollywood plays.