11.03.2007

The Ack Ack Handicap

The boys will be going a mile over the main track at Churchill in this Grade 3 event. Sun King, the morning line 9/5 favorite, comes in with a 10-race losing streak, albeit against primarily Grade 1 company. While he has hit the board 5 of 6 times at this distance, he's 0 for 2 at Churchill. He's giving 3-7 pounds to the rest of the field and that, coupled with his tendency to hang a little in deep stretch, makes him a play against on top.

Simon Pure has hit the board 5 of 5 at Churchill, 5 of 5 at this distance, and his last time under the spires he won handily at 7 furlongs. With early speed to his left, he should get a dream trip hugging the rail and have first run at the speed at the top of the stretch.

He'll have to hold off Istan, who returns to his preferred surface after a poor outing on the grass last out.

Throng enters off a brief freshening. He's filled out the exacta 4 of 6 times at a mile, with a career best Beyer coming at a mile under the Twin Spires a year ago. This Pletcher-trained colt should round out the superfecta at a price.

Off Duty will have trouble stretching out, Casino Evil gets cooked by the huge step up in class.

Spotsgone has hit as a bomb at this level before, but likely gets used up with the early speed.

Ryan's For Real enters for a barn hitting at 30% stretching out and 23% second off the layoff. His late-running style fits this pace scenario, and he stands a good chance to pick up a few pieces at an attractive price.

The play:

$.10 super wheel - 3 first & second w/1,5,7,8 ($4.80)
$.10 super wheel - 3,5/3,5/1,7,8/1,7,8 ($1.20)
$.10 super wheel - 8 second & third w/3,5,1,7 ($4.80)
$5 win - #3
$1 tri wheel - 3 first & second w/5,8 ($4.00)

The play is that it runs 3-5-8-(1/7), with a few hedges thrown in to allow for a slight deviation.


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