Programming Alert

This week we are going to do something a little different. As most of you likely don't know, the National Handicapping Championship is held each January in Las Vegas. It has been the this handicapper's demi-decade long dream to qualify for this event.

In my most recent attempt, an online qualifier at brisnet.com, I made it through the first round, finishing 44th of roughly 300 entrants, before flattening out and finishing 168th of 300 finalists and missing out on the NHC finals.

This Saturday, Television Games Network is hosting an online qualifier that will send the Top 5 finishers to Vegas to represent TVG. The format is the same as that at the National Handicapping Championship, and it is all about finding winners at a value. For each designated race, each contestant will place a $2 win/place wager. The top 5 money-winners advance to the finals, with one caveat - win payoffs are capped at $40, place payoffs at $20, a measure designed to keep one-hit wonders from playing bombs all day and getting one home at an insane price.

The key to scoring big in tournament play is understanding that playing nothing but chalk is a losing proposition. The target per-race dollar figure to win a tournament is $20, and you simply can't get there playing chalk. The 7th race at Calder today provides a perfect example as to why.

A five furlong sprint on the grass for lower level claimers, by definition it wasn't the type of race that would present an unassailable favorite. As it turns out, Lox and Kippers made the lead as the 1.70-to-1 favorite and held off a rallying 47-1 flyer, So Savvy. Per tournament rules, the winning favorite paid the combined win/place payouts, which totaled $9.00. The lightly regarded So Savvy paid $24.60 to place. Truncated to the max payout, tournament players who backed the 47-1 shot collected $20, which just happens to be our per race target.

So what is the lesson here? It is that in tournament play, you must analyze the race to first determine NOT who is most likely to win, but who the betting public is most likely to back as the most likely to win. Once you have peeled back that onion, you must decide whether you agree and set a base line that you will not go below. If, however, you disagree, or if you suspect your first choice will be bet down below your basement value, the entire race opens up and you have to determine the longest shot who is most likely to generate a payout. It isn't easy.

Let's say your stand out top choice will likely go off at 3/2. Too low. Many veteran tournament players refuse to play any horse below 5/1. I'm not sure I'm that absolute about it...but I haven't qualified for the NHC yet, so maybe I should be. Okay, your most likely choice to upset the race is a morning line 6/1, and you suspect he will go off around that. Contrast that with a 20/1 who has one angle...dirt-to-turf, stretch out, 2nd off layoff...that really stands out and merits consideration as a possible bomb. Who do you play?

To be honest, I'm not sure if I've figured that out yet. We will find out on Saturday, as I take another shot at the NHC and put my picks on here for my adoring public to see.