The difference between handicapping and wagering

The difference is pretty clear cut - handicapping is graded on a curve, wagering is pass/fail.

The chart from the Ack Ack chart shows that we handicapped the race well on several counts:

1. Sun King was a play against on top - check
2. Istan was the biggest threat to win - check
3. The early speed would get cooked - check (check out that 2nd 1/4 fraction of 22.44, that is a bullet...credit goes to Spotsgone for contesting those early fractions and sticking around for a piece of the super)
4. Ryan's for Real provided some value on the bottom of the tri/super tickets, as expected.
5. Simon Pure let the early speed clear and got the rail-skimming trip we hoped for.

Unfortunately, parimutuel pools don't factor in a narrative, they only pay off for outcomes. So despite nailing the pace scenario, correctly taking a stand against the morning line and betting favorite AND getting a 37-1 bomb on the ticket, we came up empty because Simon Pure didn't fire.

This is a prime example of why I wanted to limit the bankroll to $20. It forced me to either key the #5, Istan, knowing there would be minimal value, or trust the course & distance angle for Simon Pure. I chose the latter angle, and came up empty.

Week 1 total - ($20)

Running total - ($20)