Mrs. Revere Pace Scenario

The first 1/2 mile of the Mrs. Revere looks fairly easy to decipher. Three fillies, #s 1-7-9 will bolt to the front, although it looks like only the 9 will have any interest in heating up the early fractions. Of those three, the 1 (Tensas Yucatan) looks most likely to stick around and be a factor at the wire.

She's facing a bit tougher field than she is used to, but you simply can't ignore her turf form. She is 2 for 2 on the green, her last out a wire-to-wire win at this distance where she appeared to have plenty left down the stretch. She's from a barn hitting 28% on the turf, and the Albarado/Nicks combo has hit an unbelievable 6 of 9 when they pair up.

Tensas Yucatan will get a rail-skimming trip on a lead that should set moderate fractions, and her last work on 11/4 indicates she likes the Churchill Downs course.

At the 1/2 mile call, I see the 9 (Gotta Have Her) our front in :47, with the 1 sitting just inside her with plenty of run left and the 7 (Dashes N Dots) contesting the pace in the 3 path. The class of the field, the 2-3-6-13, will be spread out a few lengths back gearing up for a drive to the wire once they hit the top of the stretch.

Tomorrow, we'll figure out whether Tensas Yucatan can stay all the way to the wire. If she goes off anywhere near her M/L odds of 15-1, I will have an interest in her doing so.