Return to Santa Anita this week

We head back to Santa Anita this week for the San Marco Stakes (GII).

The race shapes up with a soft pace up front, where Masterly (#4) figures to set most of the fractions. Niagara Causeway (#2) will likely be placed just off his shoulder. Neither will be pressing too much, as their only hope to hang on in this 1 1/4 mile turf route will be to lead the field on the merry-go-round all the way to the wire.

That won't happen. Champs Elysees (#6) stands well above the rest in this heat. Normally, the Frugal Capper doesn't touch a 6/5 morning line that will likely be bet down to 2/5 by the time the gates open. We'll spread a little to allow for a mild upset, but we're not counting on it. Champs will be our heavy play on top.

Should he get another bad trip, similar to his 2nd place finish in the Hollywood Turf Cup, look for Decado (#5) to steal this race at a decent price. Medici Code (#7) and Obrigado (#8) will be involved late, just not enough to get past Champs Elysees.

The play, centered around a Champs Elysees - Decado exacta and enough spread to allow for some variance.

$.10 Super 5-6/5-6-7-8/5-6-7-8/All $6
$.10 Super 6/5-7-8/ALL/ALL $9
$.10 Super 6/5/7-8/ALL $1
$.10 Super 5/6/7-8/ALL $1
$1 Exacta Key 6/5-7-8 $3

Total Investment: $20

Checking the books

Before we get into today's play, we need to tally up our loss last week. Our ROI has been gradually eroding, we'll turn it around this week.

Invested $152.80
Returned $330.40
ROI 2.2:1

The LeComte (GIII)

The Road to the Roses gets in full swing this week, with graded Derby preps at the Louisiana Fair Grounds and Santa Anita. With the weather and drainage problems that Santa Anita has had recently, we will stay away from the San Rafael (GII) and focus our attention on the traditional dirt of the Fair Grounds.

The LeComte (GIII) boasts a field of eight Triple Crown hopefuls after this morning's scratch of Star Guitar. Blackberry Road (#6) enters as the marquee attraction and morning line favorite. The Gone West colt has hit the board in two straight graded stakes efforts, his last a career best 85 Beyer in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) where he finished a half-length behind Anak Nakal, a top Derby contender. He was full of run late in that race, and we expect that to be the cast today as well. We also expect the slight turn back from 1 1/16 miles to today's mile will be enough to compromise his chances to win.


Texas Fever (#1) makes his first start on the conventional dirt. His recent work tab suggests it will be his preferred surface after four starts on the synthetic and one attempt on the lawn.


Our top choice is The Darp (#2), who gets Robby Albarado in the irons. Albarado switches mounts today after piloting Mad Flatter (#7) in his last two outings. The Darp handily beat maidens over this same mile course in his last outing, and we are looking for him to top that effort today. He'll have to hold off a late run by Macho Again (#8) to take top honors. We think he will.


The play:

$.10 super 1-2/1-2-8/ALL/ALL $12
$1 tri key 2/1-8 $2
$1 exacta box 1-2-8 $6

Total investment - $20

What the Truck?!

By the time the field of sophomores entered the gate yesterday in the Hutcheson (GII), I had already mentally ripped up my tickets.

I posted early afternoon that two of our speed entries had scratched out, weakening my position on Big Truck.

Watching him in the post parade weakened it completely. Shortly after the horses moved on to the main track, Javier Castellano sent the Truck on a sharp gallop. That meant one of two things - either the Big'un was full of run on the sealed track and he was trying to settle him down (highly unlikely), or he was unresponsive and he was trying to get his attention (much more likely). I held out hope it was the former, at least until they came to the gate.

In a 7 furlong dash with plenty of speed up front, the last thing you want to see from your top choice is a flat-footed walk to the gate. Big Truck was flat-footed, head slightly down, as he walked to the gate. There was NOTHING about his body language that said he was ready to run, and body language doesn't lie. He wasn't ready, and he didn't run.

Conversely, Smooth Air (#5) was on his toes and clearly sitting on a big effort. I'll take solace in a last minute saver play on him, but that doesn't do anything for my running tally, which has been gradually eroding for several weeks now.

We'll go back to the charts and turn this thing around next week. For now, this is where we stand:

Invested $132.80
Returned $330.40
ROI 2.5:1

Change in Complexion

With the scratches of Grand Minstrel (#2) and Cool Coal Man (#3), the complexion of today's Hutcheson (GII) has changed. With 40% of our early hot pace scratched out, you may want to take a closer look at Tiz It (#1), Smooth Air (#5) and Coal Play (#10).

Tiz It should make the lead on the rail fairly easily. With John Velazquez in the irons and less pace pressure early, the 1 looms a bigger threat to prevail. Ditto Smooth Affair, who gets south Florida's best jockey (Manoel Cruz) today. Lastly, Coal Play should get a better trip from the outside post.

As my Uncle Pat used to say, "a card laid is a card played", so I will stick to my original play and root a little harder for the Big Truck to rumble through for the win.

The New and Improved Gulfstream?

The newness at Gulfstream isn't in question; whether or not it's improved is open to debate, and there is plenty of it. Having not set foot there since the renovations, I'll keep my opinions to what I see happening on the track.

Today, a fresh crop of 3 year olds takes to the main track for the Hutcheson (GII), a 7 furlong dash that features plenty of legitimate speed up front. Expect Tiz It (#1), Grand Minstrel (#2), Cool Coal Man (#3), Smooth Air (#5), & Coal Play (#1)0 to all gun to the front down the backstretch, with Coal Play likely compromised by the wide post and hung 3-4 wide in the turn. With the talent in this field, that may be just enough to keep him out of the exacta.

Immediately behind that wave and settling in for a fierce stretch drive will be Halo Najib (#4) and Big Truck (#7). The winner will likely come from this duo, with Tiz It and Smooth Air staying the trip to make it interesting.

At 12/1 on the morning line, we expect Big Truck to be bet down substantially. We don't think he'll be bet down enough to make him an underlay. Exiting a troubled 4th in the Remsen and turning back to a distance he has won at before in stakes company, Big Truck gets a Tagg/Castellano combo that hit at 40% in 2007. He is the pick.

Pinning big hopes on Big Truck, here is the play:

$.10 super 7/1-4-5/1-2-3-4-5-6-10/1-2-3-4-5-6-10 $9.00
$1 exacta key 7/1-4-5 $3
$1 tri key 7/1-4-5 $6
$2 win #7

Total Investment = $20

And They're Off!

Approximately 15 hours into the new year, and 4 months before the 1st Saturday in May, Calder Race Course officially kicked off the 2008 Kentucky Derby campaign with the Tropical Park Derby (GIII). A 1 1/8th mile test over the turf, the year's first Derby on the Derby Trail propelled Cowboy Cal to the top of the contender list. Although the Cowboy will have to make the transition to dirt at some along the Derby Trail if he hopes to prevail in the Run for the Roses, it is important to note that Barbaro launched his 2006 Derby campaign in this same race.

One important thing to note in comparing the two races - while both winners ran similarly, tracking an honest early pace, Barbaro's come home time (his last furlong) of :11.4 seconds stamped him as a champion in the making. Cowboy Cal's come home time of :12.1 is impressive, but he'll need to move up a few lengths to be the top choice when the gate open on May 3rd.

Happy Birthday, Derby Winner!

Yep, today is the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner's birthday...along with every other thoroughbred born in 2005. As the calendar gradually creeps towards the first saturday in May, we will track all the Derby preps and try to stay up-to-date on this crop of the 3 year olds. If they come anywhere close to last year's we're in for a helluva campaign.