Sam F. Davis @ Tampa Bay

At first glance, I like Cornelio Velasquez and Fierce Wind (#4) to wire the field at 6/1 or better. I'll have to see how the Fritchie runs before I make my play. Others to watch in this field are Z Humor (#8), the 9/5 morning line favorite who gets Go Go Gomez back in the irons today; Smooth Air (#7), a burner making his two-turn debut; and Wise Answer (#1), who returns to the dirt after bombing on the green in his last race.

Since I'll actually be making my plays at my local simulcast facility today (a rarity now with the Baby Capper), my next post will be a redux of today's plays.

Barbara Fritchie @ Laurel

A 7 furlong dash for the ladies over the dirt at Laurel, on paper the Barbara Fritchie (GII) looks pretty chalky.

Control System (#8) is the clear morning line favorite at 8/5, and will likely be sent to the gate at something closer to 1/2. As we've said repeatedly already, tournament handicapping isn't just about picking winners, it is about picking winners that have value. We will have to wait until post time to determine Control System's value, relative to the rest of the field.

There are really only two others I'll be watching, and I will have to get them at a price to play them.

Draw a line through For Kisses' (#3) last outing, where she was blocked just as she was making her late run, and her running lines suggest she is a strong contender to make the exacta. At 10/1 or higher, that should deliver a greater ROI paying place-only than Control System will in the top spot.

If we can't get For Kisses at double digit odds, Oprah Winney is the other logical play to consider. I anticipate she'll be overlaid at ~8/1 off her dull outing last month. A return to her late summer form of 2007 gets her to the wire on top...as does a repeat of her performance in last year's Fritchie.

If neither of those pan out, we will eat some chalk and hope the race runs true to form.

Las Virgenes

As projected, Golden Doc A won the Las Virgenes, gamely holding off Lovely Isle by a length. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite, however, she didn't offer any value in tournament play, paying $8 on a $2 Win/Place wager.

So here is the day's tally - picked both winners, but returned $0 because neither delivered enough value to play in a tournament. Conversely, had I played them both and wagered a total of $8, I would have returned $14.40, for a net profit of $6.40 and an ROI of just over 1.75:1...an ROI that if carried over two days and 30 races would have placed me 2nd in the 2007 DRF National Handicapping Championship.

I'm not convinced going 'by the book' is necessarily the way to go, at least not after my first week playing under tournament conditions.

Wow

Pyro looked every bit the part of a top Derby contender, biding his time through the first 3/4 mile, then making a menacing midtrack move to win the Risen Star in dominating fashion. He paid $3.80 to win, $2.60 to place. A $4 Win/Place play would have returned $6.40, for a profit of $2.40. That won't get it done in tournament play.

Despite Blackberry Road not having any running room and failing to hit the board, we played that race the right way.

Onto the Las Virgenes.

Risen Star update

Looks like we'll have to go with Plan Uh Oh in the Risen Star (GIII), as Pyro is at 6/5 with 10 minutes to post, and Check it Twice is scratched out.

I'm keeping an eye on the tote and leaning towards Blackberry Road, a late runner exiting a strong finish in the Lecomte (GIII) with a 90 BSF.

Z Fortune stands at 7/2 with 9 minutes - pass.

The Darp (#7) will lead them around for a while. Who knows, if he gets away with crawling fractions, he might stick around late, too. Doubtful, but might be worth a play at 30-1.

Rich Young Ruler looks good in the post parade, another bomb worth a slight look at 50-1.

It's 5 minutes to post and Pyro is still 6/5. As much as I'd like to nail a bomb here with The Darp, I'm going with Blackberry Road in my tournament play. Let's hope he upsets Pyro and keeps the latter's Future odds around 15-1.

Risen Star and Las Virgenes

Today will kick off our trial run for playing handicapping tournaments. We will use DRF's Races of the Week as our 'mandatory' plays, make a $2 Win/Place wager on each race, and see how close we can come to getting a 2:1 return, the type of ROI that gives us a fighting chance in a tournament.

Here we go...

Risen Star (GIII) Race #9, Fair Grounds
It has been over 7 months since any horse other than undefeated Eclipse Award winner War Pass has beaten Pyro. The visually impressive son of Pulpit has been drilling morning workouts with Curlin and is primed for a very heady 3-year-old campaign. He is clearly the horse to beat in this strong Risen Star field, and he more than likely will.

The concern here is that he will likely go off at even money, a very bad proposition in a tournament format. For that reason (and the fact I'll be rooting hard against my top Kentucky Derby Futures play to salvage some value in Pool 1), I am looking elsewhere for the most likely 2nd-place finisher and possible upset winner.

Z Fortune is another strong candidate from the Asmussen barn, undefeated in 3 starts with a graded stakes win over this track in the Lecomte (GIII). He is hard to ignore and could very well upset his stablemate. He won't deliver enough value to play it that way, though, so I'm going with Pletcher entry Check it Twice. A winner of two straight, Check it Twice shows a strong Beyer progression, an impressive worktab and a powerful late move that should have him reeling in his tiring rivals alongside Pyro. At 12-1 on the morning line, he won't have to get the upper hand on the son of Pulpit to make this play payoff.

Look for Pyro (#8) to win the Risen Star, with our play, Check it Twice (#1), closing strong alongside him to place.



Las Virgenes (GI), Race #7, Santa Anita
This grade I test has a field of 7 ladies going a mile. Golden Doc A appears to be the most likely winner in this heat - at odds anywhere near her morning line (5/2), it might be worth making her my play. That is unlikely, however, so I will dig a little deeper into the field.

Divine Legacy makes her 3rd start after breaking her maiden last out, a huge class jump. What she does show that makes her worth playing is a nice Beyer jump in her first two-turn effort, and a worktab that indicates trainer Bill Currin has been pointing her to this race. A similar move forward today will put her squarely in the mix late, and her running line last out suggests she will relish mixing it up as they gun for the wire. Divine Legacy (#1) is the play at 7-1 or above; if we can't get that we'll fall back to Golden Doc A (#4) at 3-1 or better.

If both of those plays don't pan out, we'll try to hit a bomb with steady, if uninspiring, Czechers (#2), who will likely be sent off at 15-1 or higher.

I'm Back

After an unannounced, and unanticipated, three week hiatus, the Frugal Capper returns just in time for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1. We'll get to that tomorrow after we watch today's Derby Preps, where we expect Pyro to stamp his name at the top of the contender list and Check It Twice to join the discussion.

We'll also take a quick look at the Magna 5, a multi-track Pick 5 with a free play option on Xpressbet that pays out real cash. That's the type of risk/reward scenario the Frugal Capper loves to play.

We are changing up our system, too, with an eye towards qualifying for the 2008 National Handicapping Championship. The NHC identifies the best handicapper by dictating the type of play that is made - a $2 Win/Place wager on one horse per race, 8 mandatory races and 7 optionals per day, for two days. After 30 races and $120 in wagers, the top dollar total takes down the prize.

This year, only 1 of the 268 qualifiers was able to double his money. As we are sure to learn, doubling up on W/P plays is much tougher game.

I'll be back later with this week's tournament plays.