Risen Star and Las Virgenes

Today will kick off our trial run for playing handicapping tournaments. We will use DRF's Races of the Week as our 'mandatory' plays, make a $2 Win/Place wager on each race, and see how close we can come to getting a 2:1 return, the type of ROI that gives us a fighting chance in a tournament.

Here we go...

Risen Star (GIII) Race #9, Fair Grounds
It has been over 7 months since any horse other than undefeated Eclipse Award winner War Pass has beaten Pyro. The visually impressive son of Pulpit has been drilling morning workouts with Curlin and is primed for a very heady 3-year-old campaign. He is clearly the horse to beat in this strong Risen Star field, and he more than likely will.

The concern here is that he will likely go off at even money, a very bad proposition in a tournament format. For that reason (and the fact I'll be rooting hard against my top Kentucky Derby Futures play to salvage some value in Pool 1), I am looking elsewhere for the most likely 2nd-place finisher and possible upset winner.

Z Fortune is another strong candidate from the Asmussen barn, undefeated in 3 starts with a graded stakes win over this track in the Lecomte (GIII). He is hard to ignore and could very well upset his stablemate. He won't deliver enough value to play it that way, though, so I'm going with Pletcher entry Check it Twice. A winner of two straight, Check it Twice shows a strong Beyer progression, an impressive worktab and a powerful late move that should have him reeling in his tiring rivals alongside Pyro. At 12-1 on the morning line, he won't have to get the upper hand on the son of Pulpit to make this play payoff.

Look for Pyro (#8) to win the Risen Star, with our play, Check it Twice (#1), closing strong alongside him to place.



Las Virgenes (GI), Race #7, Santa Anita
This grade I test has a field of 7 ladies going a mile. Golden Doc A appears to be the most likely winner in this heat - at odds anywhere near her morning line (5/2), it might be worth making her my play. That is unlikely, however, so I will dig a little deeper into the field.

Divine Legacy makes her 3rd start after breaking her maiden last out, a huge class jump. What she does show that makes her worth playing is a nice Beyer jump in her first two-turn effort, and a worktab that indicates trainer Bill Currin has been pointing her to this race. A similar move forward today will put her squarely in the mix late, and her running line last out suggests she will relish mixing it up as they gun for the wire. Divine Legacy (#1) is the play at 7-1 or above; if we can't get that we'll fall back to Golden Doc A (#4) at 3-1 or better.

If both of those plays don't pan out, we'll try to hit a bomb with steady, if uninspiring, Czechers (#2), who will likely be sent off at 15-1 or higher.