Barbara Fritchie @ Laurel

A 7 furlong dash for the ladies over the dirt at Laurel, on paper the Barbara Fritchie (GII) looks pretty chalky.

Control System (#8) is the clear morning line favorite at 8/5, and will likely be sent to the gate at something closer to 1/2. As we've said repeatedly already, tournament handicapping isn't just about picking winners, it is about picking winners that have value. We will have to wait until post time to determine Control System's value, relative to the rest of the field.

There are really only two others I'll be watching, and I will have to get them at a price to play them.

Draw a line through For Kisses' (#3) last outing, where she was blocked just as she was making her late run, and her running lines suggest she is a strong contender to make the exacta. At 10/1 or higher, that should deliver a greater ROI paying place-only than Control System will in the top spot.

If we can't get For Kisses at double digit odds, Oprah Winney is the other logical play to consider. I anticipate she'll be overlaid at ~8/1 off her dull outing last month. A return to her late summer form of 2007 gets her to the wire on top...as does a repeat of her performance in last year's Fritchie.

If neither of those pan out, we will eat some chalk and hope the race runs true to form.