Tampa Bay Derby (GIII)

War Pass doesn't need to win and has only one posted workout since his Allowance win on 2/24, so don't take anything lower than 1/5 on him today.

Seriously, the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) offers very little in terms of wagering propositions on top, so the challenge here is to find the likeliest place horse and salvage some value.

Big Truck will likely go off as the second choice, right around his morning line of 9/2. He is an honest runner, though he hasn't shown much speed to date. That may change today, however, if the bullets he's fired his last two works translate to the afternoon. In a short field with little class besides War Pass, Big Truck is the only plausible upsetter (and an unlikely one at that), and is the most likely to be moving well late. We'll play the Tagg entry and hope the Juvy champ isn't asked for any run late.

Good to be back

As I am finding out, parenthood and a heavy workload leave little time for handicapping the races. On those rare occasions I do find the time, there isn't much left over to write about it.

To recap the last month or so, my last posted race was the Sam F. Davis (GIII) at Tampa Bay Downs, a successful play that saw Fierce Wind prevail. Since then, my only other handicapping activity of note was a disappointing finish in the NHC Tour tournament on March 1st. One bad wagering mistake and two no-running-room 4th place finishes resulted in a disappointing finish. The top 10% earned Tour points, and when my 14/1 bomb failed to fire in the last leg, I had to settle for a finish in the top 1/3rd.

So it goes.