Pick Your Wagering Variables Wisely

Saturday's weather forecast at Aqueduct gives us an opportunity to talk a little about which variables are worth wagering on, and which ones are not.

Weather is an element to be factored into your handicapping, not the basis for making your plays. As it stands now, my first look at the Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct starts with the question of whether it will stay on the turf, or be moved to the main (dirt) track. If it stays on the turf, how much will the rain affect the course? If it moves to the dirt, how many in the field of 12 will scratch out, and how many move up from the change in surface? For me, that is too many variables to consider before trying to structure the pace scenario. Handicapping is about eliminating, or at least minimizing, the variables in your data set.

Until we know for sure what the conditions will be in the Red Smith, I won't even begin dissecting that race. If you just can't help yourself and have to take a look, you can get the past performance here: Red Smith PP. If you have to play it, I'd suggest capping it under the assumption it will be moved to the main track.

In a little while, I'll post my first look at the Mrs. Revere pace scenario.