12.22.2007

All I want for Christmas

Is to nail a dime super with a bomb on top. The CashCall Futurity (GI) might give us that opportunity.

Massive Drama (#2) and Colonel John (#8) enter with most of the attention, with Colonel John given the slight edge as the 5/2 morning line choice. Both are lightly raced, and and both own impressive last out wins over the Hollywood Cushion Track. The Colonel gets the morning line nod because his win was at this distance, while Drama is stretching out for his first try at two turns. They are deserving of the accolades and should go off as the top two choices.

We will try to beat them.

Massive Drama has plenty of speed drawn outside him. In his first two starts, he has gunned to the front. He'll have to do that today to avoid being bottled up into the first turn, and he'll be pressed from the inside as well.

Sierra Sunset (#1) has shown he'll press the pace, contesting quick fractions (:22 1/5, :46 1/5) in his first try at two turns, a win in the Cal Cup Juvenile on November 3rd. His work tab since that effort has been sharp. If you're willing to forgive his only Hollywood try on July 4th (38 Beyer), you'll get a Russell Baze piloted winner at two turns at very tasty odds.

Others that will be on the engine early are Eaton's Gift (#4) a recent allowance winner trying graded stakes company for the first time; (#7) Tres Borrachos, a maiden graduate taking a huge step up in his 4th start; and (#12) Into Mischief, a Harlan's Holiday colt who should like the added distance.

Of the early speed, we expect Sunset, Drama and Mischief to be around late.

Joining them when the real running begins at the top of the stretch will be (#11) Old Man Buck, a grinder who seems to prefer the turf, (#10) Monba, a Pletcher trainee who gets Gomez aboard for his stakes debut, and (#9) Shore Do, who takes the blinkers off in his first start since moving to Bobby Frankel's barn. (#3) Overextended will be winding up his late run, but won't join the leaders until the very end, if at all.

I've said before that the pace scenario always forms the basis for my play. The hot pace shapes up perfectly for Shore Do's late midtrack move. Frankel is hitting with 22% overall, and 25% off a short (31-60 day) layoff. Lastly, I'm a big fan of the blowout move/maintenance move work tab going into a stakes race, and Shore Do shows that.

We said were looking for a dime super with a bomb on top. I think we have it with 12/1 morning line Shore Do. The others in the mix include Sierra Sunset (who stands a good chance to hit the exacta), Massive Drama, Monba, Old Man Buck, Overextended and Into Mischief.

I'll spend a little more time structuring my ticket, then I'll be back shortly with this week's plays.




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