The La Prevoyante Handicap

It is back to the site of our last score, the turf course at Calder for the La Prevoyante Handicap (GII), a 1 1/2 marathon for older fillies and mares. This field of 12 presents plenty of value for exotic players and those who prefer playing the WPS parimutuels.

Dalvina enters off a win at this distance last out, bringing the top last out Beyer with her (100). In that race, the Long Island Handicap (GIII), she was well back early before launching an extended midtrack move and running off with a 3 1/2 length win. She is the deserving favorite today, although I expect her to be sent off much lower than her 3/1 morning line. She'll figure prominently in our play.

Here's a quick look at the field.

#1 Oh Deanne O (15/1)- She will be on the lead for a while, but not when it counts. There are too many late movers in here for her to win this marathon from the front, and likely too many for her to hold on for a piece of the exotics.

#2 My Rachel (5/1) - She was swallowed up by Dalvina when they hooked up in the Long Island Handicap. In that one, she drew off to a 6 length lead before backing up and holding onto the show. She will be swallowed up by several today. We'll be playing against the morning line 3rd choice.

#3 Green Girl (FR) (4/1) - Another who enters out of the Long Island, she has also taken on Breeders Cup Champion English Channel and Canadian Horse of the Year Sealy Hill since crossing the Atlantic from France. She's yet to hit the board this year facing that company. She should find the going much easier here and will be one we expect to be a factor at the end.

#4 Jive (20/1) - 2 of 11 lifetime on turf, career best Beyer of 80 and making her stakes debut. A smart play if you need some losers to zero out a tax ticket. Otherwise, look elsewhere.

#5 Dalvina (3/1) - The class of this field, she will grind her way to the front. Whether she stays there is the question. I think she gets nabbed at the wire, but we'll have several plays on either side of that coin.

#6 Redaspen (12/1) - A grinder that we pegged in the My Charmer Handicap (GIII)super two weeks ago, she hasn't been off the board in 5 starts this year against slightly lesser company. Wheeling back that quickly to go 3 furlongs more against better is a stiff challenge. Expect another honest effort, just don't expect her to fire fresh. She will factor on the bottom of our exotics.

#7 Eres Magica (CHI) (6/1) - Mercurial filly is 2 of 2 in the exacta at this distance and enters off an 8 week layoff. She has run well fresh, but her speed figures seem a notch below the best in this field.

#8 Herboriste (GB) (12/1) - Her Beyers have ticked upwards as the distances have increased, and she has won both starts at 1 1/2 miles. She gets top rider Manoel Cruz aboard today, and she will need a smart ride to overcome big class jump she'll be making. The play here is that she'll be forwardly placed, make a middle move to snare the lead at the top of the stretch and be all out to hold on.

#9 Suaveness (20/1) - 0 for 3 on turf, having backed up at much shorter. Have to question what she is doing in this spot.

#10 I'm In Love (8/1) - A hard fought placing two back against Criminologist and Dance Away Capote was followed by a respectable 2nd on the Poly at Woodbine. She returns to the green, where she is in the tri 7 of 14 lifetime, and stretches out to a mile and a half for the first time. She will be moving the best late, and she gets Elvis Trujillo aboard, who has hit an amazing 8 of 13 for Kieran McLaughlin in 2006-07, and 3 of 4 at Calder. Another who stands a chance to hit the wire first for a nice price.

#11 Sans Souci Island (10/1) - Another who enters off the layoff, this filly is not afraid to mix it up, splitting foes to win in her first two starts. Her Beyers are trending in the right direction, and she posted a career top last out in her first try against stakes company. She will be flying late if she gets a running lane and stands to get a piece of the exotic.

#12 Indiansong (20/1) - Her graded stakes debut won't be a memorable one. Pass.

The play, with a lesson learned last week and a little more hedging than normal:

$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/3-5-8/3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 3-5-8/1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super wheel 1-2-6-7-10-11/3-5-8/3-5-8/3-5-8 ($3.60)
$.10 super key 5/3-6-8-10 ($2.40)
$.10 super box 3-5-6-8 ($2.40)
$.10 super wheel 3-5/3-5/6-8-10/6-8-10 ($1.20)

Total Investment $20.40 (slightly above our cap of $20, a nod to the value in this race)