A Rookie Mistake

I mentioned yesterday that after further review, we simply got beat in the Native Diver Handicap (GIII)...that's not entirely true. We made a $16.80 mistake that cost us $873.56, or an ROI of 52:1.

With the advent of dime supers, superfectas with a base bet of $.10 instead of the traditional $1.00 base, it is careless to have strong opinions about 3 horses and not wheel them around a super ticket. Unfortunately, that is exactly what we did on Saturday.

We felt strongly that Ravel (#1) was the class of the field. He ran a somewhat troubled 4th. We believed Racketeer (#8) was the only one in the field that could run down Ravel. He ran a solid 2nd. Lastly, we said that IF Isipingo (#5) ran to his turf form, he would be a factor late. He closed for 3rd. Had we played a straight tri ticket, it would have been 1-8-5 for a $2 minimum. Boxing those three would give us 6 combinations, for $6.

A dime super, however, would have given us 168 options AND given us a lot more exposure to the derivative outcomes of a 1-8-5 play. In layman's terms, we would have cashed a ticket. The Native Diver was a 10-horse field - wheeling the remaining 7 entries in all 4 slots in the super would have given us the following combinations, the last of which would have delivered the winning play at 52:1 ROI.

3x2x1x7 = $4.20
3x2x7x1 = $4.20
3x7x2x1 = $4.20
7x3x2x1 = $4.20

By comparison, wheeling the field around our three selections in a $1 trifecta play would have given us these combinations:

3x2x7 = $42
3x7x2 = $42
7x3x2 = $42

Again, the last combination delivered the winning play, at an ROI of 21:1.

Clearly, the dime super is a frugal capper's dream play. In the Native Diver, based on the same handicapping selections, it provided an ROI 2.5x higher than a $1 tri wheel, at an investment level 7.5x lower.

Although Saturday wasn't a winning day, it provided a very valuable wagering lesson. We'll see if we can put it into play soon.