12.08.2007

Fair Grounds postmortem

We can only hope our play in the Native Diver Handicap (GIII) is anywhere near as accurate as our nonplay in the Louisiana Champions Day Classic.

Costa Rising was sent off as the overlaid 2/5 favorite. Seriously, he could have been sent at 1/9 and still have been underbet. We said he would make the lead - he did, by a length at the 1/4 call. We said his only pace pressure would be Southern Invasion - he was, running 2nd for 3/4s before fading to last. We said the only closer was Hallway, and he wouldn't get close - he was, and he didn't. And we said Costa Rising would win by daylight, with little urging - he did, drawing away for a 15+ length win under a hand ride.

He paid $2.80 to win, a tick above our $2.40 projection. The $2 exacta paid $9.20...or $4.60 on the dollar. Had we played the tri, with Costa on top, Hallway in second and wheeled the remainder on the bottom, our $3 play would have paid $21.30, or a staggering 7-to-1.

We'll keep an eye on the Fair Grounds now that we have a race under our belts. If only they were all that easy.

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